What Calgary Flames fans should expect Dustin Wolf's next contract to look like

Any doubts on whether Dustin Wolf’s size would hinder him at the NHL level have quickly been erased.

The Calgary Flames goaltender had a superb rookie season, which led to him being named a finalist for the Calder Trophy. The 24-year-old posted a 2.64 GAA along with a .910 SV% in 53 appearances this past season.

A deeper dive shows that Wolf was among the best goaltenders in the NHL this season. His 15.68 goals saved above average (GSAA) ranked sixth in the league, while his 26.38 goals saved above expected (GSAx) was seventh.

Wolf has one more season remaining on his current two-year deal, which carries a cap hit of just $850,000. He’s eligible to sign an extension come July 1 and is in for a significant pay raise.

It is difficult to find comparables for Wolf, as few goaltenders have not only had the rookie season he had, but also had dominant numbers for several seasons in the AHL as well.

As far as Calder Trophy finalists go, the three most recent goaltenders to be up for the award were Stuart Skinner (2022-23), Alex Nedeljkovic (2020-21), and Jordan Binnington (2018-19).

Starting with Skinner, he played the vast majority of his first four professional seasons in the AHL, though his rookie campaign came in the ECHL. While his minor stats were good, particularly in 2020-21 and 2021-22, they weren’t nearly as dominant as we’ve seen from Wolf.

Skinner wound up signing his extension partway through his rookie NHL season in 2022-23, a three-year deal with an AAV of $2.6 million.

As for Nedeljkovic, he had spent four seasons in the minors before getting his break in 2020-21. While he had a superb rookie campaign for the Carolina Hurricanes, it came during the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season, which resulted in him making just 23 appearances, a much smaller sample size than what Wolf had in his rookie year.

Following the now 29-year-old’s Calder finalist season, he was signed to a two-year deal with a $3 million cap hit.

Binnington, meanwhile, broke into the NHL at a much later age. He came into the NHL partway through his sixth professional season in 2018-19, and went on a historic run in which he led the St. Louis Blues to a Stanley Cup championship.

Shortly after the 2018-19 season had concluded, the Blues signed Binnington to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $4.4 million.

As mentioned, these are tough comparables, as not only did Wolf show much more promise before entering the NHL, but the salary cap has since risen and is expected to climb drastically in the coming years.

Ideally, the Flames would sign Wolf to a long-term deal, rather than the bridge contract the goaltenders above inked. Though he, too, is inexperienced at the NHL level at this point in his career, his track record in the AHL, paired with his rookie season, gives a strong indication that he’s the real deal.

AFP Analytics has two projections for Wolf’s next deal. The first would see him sign for just one year with a cap hit of roughly $4.33 million. The longer-term deal is a six-year contract, which is projected to carry a cap hit of $8.08 million.

That’s where this whole thing gets tricky. As good as Wolf has looked to this point, his sample size at the NHL is still rather minuscule, as he’s logged just 71 career games. That said, the Flames were recently comfortable going long term with another young talent, Matt Coronato, who they signed to a seven-year extension with an AAV of $6.5 million.

Though a long-term deal would come with some risk, the Flames brass seems to have a ton of confidence in Wolf’s abilities, proven last offseason when they chose to trade Jacob Markstrom to the New Jersey Devils. The 23-year-old more than lived up to expectations, which has likely only upped the confidence in him from Flames management.

The best-case scenario for the Flames would be to sign Wolf to the maximum eight-year deal, even if it is in the $8 million range. If they were to bridge him and he continues to improve, he could be in line to land an even bigger salary, given the expected increase in the maximum allowable cap.

As mentioned, nothing between the two parties can be agreed upon before July 1, but it’s a situation for Flames fans to monitor in the months to come.

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