AI predicts Alberta could see its homeless population explode by 2030

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Alberta is predicted to have a massive explosion in homelessness by 2030, according to predictive AI from a Calgary-based technology company.

HelpSeeker is a startup that’s been in operation for four years and uses “social technology innovation to solve complex social challenges, including but not limited to homelessness, domestic violence, mental health, addictions,” and more, according to Dr. Alina Turner, CEO and co-founder of the company.

She says Alberta could see its homeless population jump to between 65,000 and 69,000 people by 2030, that’s an increase of around 1,000% from today if you look at the point-in-time count. That number was calculated based on current homeless populations across seven cities in Alberta with data provided by their respective city and local homelessness organizations: Calgary, Edmonton, Wood Buffalo, Red Deer, Grande Prairie, Medicine Hat, and Lethbridge.

Helpseeker

Calgary continues to see the highest number of unhoused people across the province and that trend is expected to continue. HelpSeeker is predicting Calgary’s homeless population to increase by 821% by 2030 from the day the data was pulled in early December 2023, jumping from 3,430 to 22,392 people. Edmonton may also see a huge 736% leap from 2,519 to 21,081 people.

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There are a number of factors leading to these skyrocketing rates like urbanization and an aging population.

“We’re still growing our cities, so this mismatch between bringing more and more people into cities but not having the housing infrastructure to support them effectively,” is what is leading the crisis, according to Turner.

But there’s another hidden factor that could drive these numbers up even higher — the international drug supply chain.

“Novel psychoactive substances are increasingly coming through borders with relative ease and the type of supply that’s coming through now is very different from what was coming through even a year ago,” she said.

“We don’t know what that’s going to do long term, in terms of things like neurological and physical damage to people.”

These easy-to-access drugs like Xylazine could ultimately impact people’s chronicity (their ability to overcome homelessness) and aren’t accounted for in these current AI predictions but Turner thinks its impact shouldn’t be underestimated.

“It’s already happening, so 71% of [unhoused] people, at any point in time, are chronically homeless — like we’ve never seen that before. That is directly caused by some of the addiction challenges we see now.”

Metro regions in Alberta are being hit especially hard. The Calgary-Edmonton corridor acts as a “mega-region” and the suburban communities in these big cities are seeing disproportionate bumps compared to the rest of the country.

HelpSeeker

A lack of data is often cited as a reason many under-supported communities aren’t approved for the help they need but funding is often needed to get that data.

“I sometimes find when you don’t have numbers, decision-makers can be like, ‘Well, prove it to me,’ and the people who are doing the advocacy are like, ‘Well how am I supposed to get that number? I’m running a shelter, I’m busy doing the work, I don’t have time to get the data.'”

She adds this can be “an easy way for people in power to brush off the issue.”