What's the ship collision risk for Metro Vancouver's major bridges?

Lions Gate Bridge's south pier (left) and the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge (right). (Shutterstock)

The unthinkable tragic collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore could have some repercussions around the world, giving pause to some of the current marine operations practices and bridge design safety considerations.

During the early morning hours of Tuesday, shortly after leaving the port in Baltimore Harbor, the container ship MV Dali collided into one of the support pillars of the bridge, and caused the long main span of the bridge to collapse.

Moments earlier before the collision, the ship’s crew issued a mayday call, and notified local authorities that they had lost power, and were veering off course towards a pillar. The advance mayday call enabled local authorities to stop vehicle further traffic from crossing the bridge, according to local media reports.

Maryland Governor Wes Moore said the ship’s actions of an advance mayday call “saved lives.”

“I have to say I’m thankful for the folks who once the point came up and notification came up, that there was a mayday,” said Moore. “Who literally by being able to stop cars from coming over the bridge, these people are heroes. They saved lives.”

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At the time of writing, at least six people are presumed dead, and it is believed at least seven vehicles fell into the water.

The Francis Scott Key Bridge is a tolled key highway route across Patapsco River, spanning a length of 2.6 km and carrying four vehicle lanes. On average, it sees over 30,000 vehicles per day, including about 4,000 commercial trucks.

Within seconds of the ship striking the bridge pier, the mid-span of the 1977-built bridge collapsed into the water and crumpled. The mid-span segment is differentiated from the rest of the crossing as a steel arch-shaped continuous-through-truss bridge.

The collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore following the collision of the MV Dali on March 26, 2024. (WBAL-TV 11 Baltimore/YouTube)

Aside from the tragic loss of life and the forthcoming prolonged traffic disruptions, reduced economic productivity, and other local economic impacts, the rubble of the bridge has now also temporarily sealed off one of the largest container port terminals on the East Coast of the United States from the rest of the world.

In reaction to the collapse, Oxford Economics says the incident will cause a ripple effect in supply chains, with cargo and container ships now being rerouted to other East Coast ports such as New York and Boston.

The forthcoming process for removing the bridge debris and returning the 50-ft-deep navigation channel to a safe condition will be a major endeavour, never mind the years-long process of designing, planning, and building a new replacement bridge — likely with a more resilient design to withstand ship collisions — to restore the arterial route for vehicles.

“There will likely be some temporary disruptions to certain industries, including automakers, but nothing that warrants an immediate change to our baseline forecast. Ultimately, the duration of the disruptions at the Port of Baltimore, along with how quickly trade can be rerouted, will determine the economic costs,” wrote Oxford Economics today.

About $80 billion in cargo moves through Baltimore’s port annually, and the partial closure of its facilities could lead to direct and indirect temporary layoffs. For the Baltimore area, a very low-end estimate pegs the value of the port to the local economy to be at least US$2 million per day.

“This is likely a low-end estimate of the potential daily lost output from a full closure of the port but provides a rough approximation of how the economic costs could rise for the metro area. Helping minimize the total economic cost for Baltimore is that the supply of fuel shouldn’t be disrupted because most of its fuel comes from pipelines rather than through the port,” continues Oxford Economics’ preliminary analysis.

“Separately, increase traffic congestion on artery roads could be a small drag on productivity, but the direct hit to employment will not be significant. The additional traffic will tax the infrastructure on the alternative routes, an additional cost of the bridge collapse for Baltimore.”

According to CNN, Baltimore’s port ranks first amongst US ports for automobile and light truck cargo, with 85,000 vehicles handled last year. It is also the leading US port for farming and construction machinery, as well as the imports of sugar and gypsum, and the second largest US port for coal exports. The port operations support about 150,000 direct and indirect jobs in the state of Maryland.

Typical traffic conditions in Baltimore at 12:30 pm on Mondays:

Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse traffic

Typical traffic conditions in Baltimore on Mondays at 12:30 pm, according to historical Google Traffic data, prior to the closure of the Francis Scott Key Bridge due to the collapse. (Google Maps)

Heavy congestion in Baltimore at 12:30 pm on Monday, March 26, 2024, following the closure of the Francis Scott Key Bridge due to its collapse:

Heavy traffic congestion on Baltimore’s bridges as of 12:30 pm on March 26, 2024, following the closure of the Francis Scott Key Bridge due to its collapse, according to real-time Google Traffic data. (Google Maps)

In addition to the blow to trade volumes through Maryland, there would also be major impacts to Baltimore’s sizeable cruise ship industry, which provides local economic job and spending spinoffs from the influx of tourists supporting restaurants, shops, attractions, hotels, entertainment, services, and transportation businesses. In 2023, Baltimore’s port was scheduled to make 115 cruise ship calls with a combined total of about 400,000 passengers.

The impact to shipping as a result of the Francis Scott Key Bridge’s collapse could theoretically be likened to the unthinkable worst-case scenario of the collapse of the Lions Gate Bridge in Vancouver, which would then block the First Narrows, making the waterway impassable for vessels for an extended period of time.

The First Narrows — the busy narrow point of Burrard Inlet between Stanley Park and the North Shore — is the sole gateway into Vancouver Harbour, where the vast majority of the Port of Vancouver’s cargo-handling capacity is located. This includes the various port terminal facilities found in East Vancouver, North Vancouver, and North Burnaby, including the terminal serving the Kinder Morgan Pipeline-fed Burnaby Refinery.

The major port facilities within Vancouver Harbour see about 250 large commercial ships each month or roughly 3,000 annually.

Other Port of Vancouver facilities outside of Burrard Inlet are located at Roberts Bank in Tsawwassen and the Fraser River in Surrey, but they would not be able to replace the immense shortfall in capacity. In such an adverse scenario, the volumes typically bound for the Port of Vancouver would also likely turn to the West Coast ports in the United States as an alternative option.

Holland America’s Noordam cruise ship passing under the Lions Gate Bridge in the First Narrows. (Debbie Ann Powell/Shutterstock)

Ironworkers Memorial Bridge in the Second Narrows. (EB Adventure Photography/Shutterstock)

The Port of Vancouver is one of Canada’s only two ports on the West Coast, and it is also by far the largest port in Canada in terms of both geographical size and cargo, with over C$300 billion worth of goods passing through its facilities. It supports over direct and indirect 115,000 jobs in BC, and catalyzes C$7 billion in wages and C$11.9 billion in GDP annually.

The only other port on Canada’s West Coast is in Port Rupert, which is also capacity constrained.

A collapse of the Lions Gate Bridge would also impact Vancouver’s major cruise ship industry — one of the two main gateways for cruises to Alaska, with the other being Seattle. As the start and end point for many Alaskan cruises, the Canada Place cruise ship terminal in downtown Vancouver is the homeport for dozens of large cruise ships from mid-spring to early-fall each year.

In 2023, 329 cruise ship visits with an estimated 1.27 million passengers are forecast for Vancouver. As a major homeport for the global cruise ship industry, cruise ship operations at Canada Place provide on average C$3 million in local economic spinoffs per ship visit, which supports almost 7,000 jobs across the country, C$300 million in wages and $C$840 million to Canada’s GDP.

Cruise ship activity accounts for a significant portion of Vancouver’s tourism industry, and it provides local businesses, especially those in and around downtown Vancouver, with an enormous seasonal boost.

Bulk vessel in Vancouver Harbour. (Vancouver Fraser Port Authority)

GCT Vanterm in East Vancouver. (Global Container Terminals)

Then there is also the enormous impact to transportation connectivity between the North Shore and the rest of Metro Vancouver. The Lions Gate Bridge and Ironworkers Memorial Bridge are of course the only road connections across Burrard Inlet, and the loss of any of these crossings over a prolonged period would have a disastrous economic consequence for not only the North Shore, but all of the South Coast of British Columbia.

After all, both bridges are also the key gateways to the Sunshine Coast and Vancouver Island (via BC Ferries’ Horseshoe Bay Terminal in West Vancouver) and the Sea to Sky Corridor destinations of Squamish and Whistler. These bridges provide one of the Lower Mainland’s few fixed links to the rest of Canada.

Currently, about 60,000 vehicles use the 1938-built Lions Gate Bridge per day, while 125,000 vehicles use the 1960-built Ironworkers Memorial Bridge (Highway 1) per day. The Lions Gate Bridge also forms a part of the Highway 99 corridor between the Sea to Sky Highway and where Highway 99 trails off at the Oak Street Bridge, and the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge is part of Highway 1.

There is an identified risk that the Lions Gate Bridge and Ironworkers Memorial Bridge could see damage from a ship strike due to some design vulnerabilities. In early 2023, after conducting previous studies, this identified risk prompted the Government of British Columbia to begin the procurement process of seeking a contractor to design collision barriers for the piers of both of these bridges in the First Narrows and Second Narrows of Burrard Inlet.

The provincial government is looking to build a new in-water rock berm around the Lions Gate Bridge’s south pier next to the Stanley Park seawall. The berm would extend around the north side of the structure — on the side of the navigation channel. There would also be a single pile to provide ships with a navigational aid to avoid the rock berm and south pier.

The Lions Gate Bridge’s north pier, located right on the shoreline, already has a rock berm.

For the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge, a “dolphin arrangement” would protect the structure’s piers, including two dolphin barriers protecting the south pier and three dolphin barriers protecting the north pier. Each dolphin barrier consists of seven tubular steel piles and a reinforced concrete pilecap, which are intended to deflect ships from colliding into the structural piers.

Rock berm protective barrier concept for the south pier of the Lions Gate Bridge. (Government of BC)

ironworkers memorial bridge dolphin barriers

Dolphin protective barrier concept for the piers of the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge. (Government of BC)

Last year, the provincial government also began an in-depth study on assessing the future of the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge, including a possible replacement. Although the bridge still has decades of lifespan left, the study will “assess current conditions and begin planning for the long-term future of this crucial connection to the North Shore.”

According to the provincial government’s previous procurement document, the safety upgrades are also required following the recent changes to the National Bridge Design Code.

Following the code changes, the provincial government contracted engineering consultancy firm WSP to study the ship collision risk and determined that the structures did not meet the new standards for vessel impact resilience and the maximum annual frequency of collapse for the bridges of one-in-10,000 years. In 2018, engineering firm SNC Lavalin refined the design concept developed by WSP.

In a statement to Daily Hive Urbanized today upon inquiry, the BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure says detailed design on the new features to protect the Lions Gate Bridge and Ironworkers Memorial Bridge from ship collisions is currently underway. No timeline for this work was provided.

But the Ministry emphasizes that a ship collision with the bridges is “extremely unlikely.”

“Our hearts go out to all the people impacted by the Baltimore bridge collapse. Public safety is our ministry’s top priority,” stated the Ministry.

“BC has one of the most comprehensive bridge inspection and safety programs in the country.”

Beyond optimal structural design, there are also operational considerations.

Many larger ships passing through the First Narrows, under the Lions Gate Bridge, and the Second Narrows, under the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge and Second Narrows rail bridge, are typically required to be aided by tethered escort tugboats. This includes tankers, based on the vessel size and cargo type, and considerations for the conditions of weather and marine traffic.

The Baltimore Banner reports that tugboats did not escort the MV Dali through the navigation channel under the Francis Scott Key Bridge. While two tugboats initially assisted the ship with maneuvering away from the port’s dock, the tethered escort ended 20 minutes before the ship collided into the bridge. But given the location, a local pilot familiar with Baltimore’s waters was likely still in command at the time of the vessel’s power failure and collision.

Similarly, according to the Ministry, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority also requires any commercial ship over 350 gross tonnes and pleasure craft over 500 gross tonnes to have a certified BC Coast pilot or Fraser River ship’s pilot before navigating through port waters, given the risks of a foreign pilot unfamiliar with the waterway.

“These pilots are professional and highly experienced mariners with detailed local knowledge about traffic, weather, tides, currents, and berth arrangements to ensure large ships make it to their destinations safely. When a pilot boards the ship, they take over all communication between the ship and the shore, other ships, tugboats, facilities, marine traffic, and the Coast Guard,” states the Ministry.

The Ministry adds that its practices for maintaining and improving both bridge structures “will complement the stringent vessel transit procedures put in place by the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority for the safe movement of people and goods in the Burrard Inlet.”

The south pier of the Lions Gate Bridge next to the Stanley Park seawall. (Ramunas Bruzas/Shutterstock)

lions gate bridge north shore mountains first narrows burrard inlet

Lions Gate Bridge looking towards the North Shore, with the south pier in the foreground. (Tim Chapman-Mills/Shutterstock)

lions gate bridge burrard inlet stanley park first narrows

Lions Gate Bridge looking towards Stanley Park. (jasondvaughan/Shutterstock)

ironworkers memorial bridge north shore second narrows

Ironworkers Memorial Bridge looking towards the North Shore. (Shutterstock)

EB Adventure Photography/Shutterstock

Recently, the port authority also adopted a new centralized scheduling system called the Active Vessel Traffic Management Program, which helps coordinate and optimize commercial ship traffic through the port’s jurisdiction. It is designed to enhance the safety, reliability, and efficiency of goods movement, with inputs on local tide levels and real-time data on the supply chain.

Last year, the new scheduling system was initially deployed in the Second Narrows to coordinate the traffic of commercial ships, tugboats, and barges that dock at the six marine terminals east of the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge, with the system coordinating and optimizing over 1,000 ship movements per year. The system will particularly aid the coordination of ship timings and rail traffic, with the Second Narrows rail bridge — located just east of the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge — being a vertical lift bridge. When the rail bridge is raised, the clearance for ships is 151 ft, which is slightly higher than the clearance offered by the Ironworkers Memorial Bridge.

For the Lions Gate Bridge, the port authority also manages the low clearance of ships under the bridge deck, including cruise ships. Taller cruise ships, which are typically the newer cruise ships, are required to wait for low tide to enter Vancouver Harbour, and they often remain docked at Canada Place longer than usual — sometimes almost a full 24 hours — to wait for the next low tide to make their outbound exit.

For this reason, the port authority has been contemplating a second cruise ship terminal outside of Burrard Inlet — potentially near the Fraser River, in Richmond or Delta — where larger cruise ships can be accommodated, and to maintain the region’s competitiveness in the global cruise industry.

The Norwegian Bliss arriving in Vancouver during the early morning hours of September 30, 2018. (Mark Musni)

norwegian bliss vancouver canada place cruise ship april 14 2023

Norwegian Bliss at the Canada Place cruise ship terminal in downtown Vancouver on April 14, 2023. (Kenneth Chan/Daily Hive)

Another major Metro Vancouver bridge that is vulnerable to damage or even collapse from ship collisions is the 1937-built Pattullo Bridge on the Fraser River. This bridge with four vehicle lanes has highly critical issues and has essentially been kept on life support over the past decade — until the new safe replacement bridge being built by the provincial government reaches completion and opens later in 2024, based on the project’s latest construction timeline.

The existing Pattullo Bridge has six unprotected structural piers within the river’s waters, while the new bridge will have two in-river piers with a more resilient design. As well, the existing bridge is deemed to be vulnerable to a catastrophic structural failure in the event of a moderate earthquake or even a strong windstorm.

TransLink’s previous studies indicate the existing Pattullo Bridge would need to close by 2024 at the very latest given its rate of deterioration. In 2020, given the high safety risks of the structure, TransLink even made the short-term safety investment of installing an advance seismic and high wind warning system for the existing bridge, including an automatic emergency bridge closure system with falling barriers on both the New Westminster and Surrey ends of the bridge deck to prevent further vehicles from entering.

Immediately after the new C$1.37 billion Pattullo Bridge opens, the existing bridge will be decommissioned and demolished. While the existing bridge is under the jurisdiction of TransLink, the provincial government has taken over the jurisdiction, leadership, and cost of the replacement bridge.

According to the Ministry, the provincial government’s approximately 3,000 bridge structures are inspected annually, and more extensive inspections are performed as needed. In the 2024/2025 fiscal year, the Ministry has set aside C$139 million to inspect, repair, rehabilitate, and seismically upgrade bridges.

pattullo bridge seismic wind advance warning

Seismic and wind advance warning system on the Pattullo Bridge. (TransLink)

The 1937-built Pattullo Bridge between New Westminster and Surrey. (Shutterstock)

Deck of the Pattullo Bridge looking north towards New Westminster. (Google Maps)

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