The Vancouver Canucks know their odds for this year’s draft lottery.
The Canucks are now guaranteed to enter the lottery with the 15th-best odds, though even if they win, they won’t be allowed to get the first overall pick.
While Vancouver could move up and down in the overall standings, if they pass the New Jersey Devils or get passed by the Montreal Canadiens, it won’t affect their lottery odds. That’s because playoff teams are exempt from the lottery. The Devils have already qualified for the playoffs and if the Canadiens pass the Canucks, they’ll be in the postseason too.
NHL
The current NHL lottery system picks two winners. Unfortunately for the Canucks, the rules permit teams to move up a maximum of 10 spots in the lottery. This means they won’t have a shot at acquiring the first-overall pick. If the Canucks win the lottery, they’ll get the fifth pick.
The Canucks have a 97.9 per cent chance at picking 15th and just a 1.1 per cent chance of moving up to pick fifth. They also have a 1.1 per cent chance of falling to 16th, which can only happen if the Calgary Flames win the lottery.
The Canucks have a slight (non-zero) chance of picking seventh if the Flames win the lottery and then the Canucks are the second team picked. The two teams would then both move up, the Flames the maximum 10 spots and the Canucks right behind them.
That Flames pick will transfer to the Montreal Canadiens unless it falls in the top 10.
So you’re telling me there’s a chance (Tankathon.com)
The draft lottery will take place May 5 or 6, depending on the soon-to-be-released playoff schedule, per TSN’s Chris Johnston. After that, the Canucks will know for sure what slot they’ll be picking in come June.
There’s no guarantee the Canucks will use their pick to draft a prospect. Instead, there’s a solid chance they look to trade the pick for a player who can help in the short term. GM Patrik Allvin has been aggressive trading his first-round picks in the past and with the Canucks looking to return to relevancy next year, looking for a trade may make the most sense.
This year’s draft is scheduled for June 27 and 28 in Los Angeles. It’ll be the NHL’s first decentralized draft, meaning many representatives and decision-makers from different teams will conduct it remotely.