With value at an all-time low, Canucks should wait to trade Boeser

Brock Boeser probably needs a change of scenery.

That’s something that Boeser as well as Vancouver Canucks management understand, as his agent was reportedly granted permission to speak to other teams months ago, in an effort to broker a trade.

But now isn’t the time to deal him.

Why should it? Boeser’s value has never been lower.

The Burnsville, Minnesota, native took the NHL by storm as a Calder Trophy finalist in 2017-18, scoring a career-high 29 goals. He had 116 points in his first 140 games by the age of 22.

It hasn’t been smooth sailing since then for Boeser, although he did lead the Canucks in scoring with 49 points in 56 games during the pandemic-shortened 2020-21 season.

His stat line this season, 37 points in 49 games, is respectable.

But the goals have dried up.

Boeser has 10 goals in 49 games, and with just 25 games left, is on pace for a career-low 15 goals.

For a so-called goal-scorer, clearly, that’s not good enough.

Boeser’s foot speed is an issue, though he has never been fleet of foot. He’s a responsible two-way player and used to have a lethal shot that could beat goalies with regularity — even Carey Price in his prime.

The Canucks were banking on a bounce-back year this season when they signed Boeser last summer to a three-year contract extension worth $6.65 million per season — a high cap hit management was essentially forced into due to contract mismanagement by the previous regime.

When Boeser proclaimed in training camp that he would score 30 goals this year, nobody laughed. It was a reasonable prediction for a player of his talent.

And that’s why the Canucks should hold onto him — at least for now.

Boeser isn’t likely to blossom into the 40-goal scorer people thought he’d be earlier in his career. But surely he also hasn’t lost it all overnight.

Preseason hand surgery clearly hurt his performance this season. While that shouldn’t excuse everything, it does provide hope that Boeser can be better next year.

Boeser turns 26 this weekend — a full year younger than Andrei Kuzmenko, who is widely viewed as a young player. He should have good hockey ahead of him.

If the goal is to buy low and sell high, the Canucks need to hold onto Boeser for now.

While Boeser’s agent has been talking to the Minnesota Wild, a recent report should give you an idea about his value. Even Boeser’s agent recognizes that the Canucks would have to eat a “big chunk” of his contract in order to move him.

If Boeser puts up better numbers next season, suddenly his contract won’t seem so onerous.

Look no further than Erik Karlsson, who the San Jose Sharks should be able to trade before next week’s deadline. His contract (four more years left after this season with an $11.5 million cap hit) is still onerous, but he’s now moveable to some degree because he’s had a sensational season, with 76 points in 58 games. And this is a soon-to-be 33-year-old that put up 35 points in 50 games one year ago.

Boeser won’t reach Karlsson levels, but his cap hit and term aren’t nearly as much as the All-Star blueliner either.

At next year’s trade deadline, an acquiring team would be staring at just one extra year on Boeser’s contract, rather than two. There’s also the possibility of the salary cap rising, thereby increasing the number of teams able to fit him in.

Could Boeser be even worse next year? It’s possible, but there’s more room for him to rise than to fall.

He’s averaging the lowest power-play time of his career this season, which has included more second-unit time than ever before. On PP1, he has played the net-front position, which is a spot he’s ill-suited for.

Boeser has 28 even-strength points, which is ahead of the likes of Quinn Hughes (27), J.T. Miller (26), Ilya Mikheyev (25), and Conor Garland (24). Bo Horvat, who is having a career year, had 32 even-strength points in 49 games before being traded. Elias Pettersson (51) and Kuzmenko (39) are the only other Canucks players ahead of Boeser in that category.

Then there’s the fact that Boeser has a career-low 9.1 shooting percentage this season. His career average is 12.7%, which suggests he’s been the victim of some bad puck luck.

The Canucks would surely love extra cap space this summer to make moves, but they’re going to need it in the summer of 2024 as well, and having dead cap money on the books isn’t ideal either.

This isn’t a Stanley Cup contender, and probably not a playoff contender either next season. So while Boeser and the team would like to find him a new home, the Canucks would be wise to manage their asset and be patient.

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