David Eby's snap election might be an advantage for incumbent mayors like Ken Sim

B.C. residents are being asked to vote twice in October: in a local election and a snap provincial election.

While Premier David Eby was likely trying to seize on the fact that the Conservative Party of B.C. was unravelling under the leadership of Kerry-Lynne Findlay, it might have the unintended effect of giving incumbent municipal politicians, like Vancouver mayor Ken Sim, an advantage over challengers.

Stewart Prest, a UBC political science professor, said he was surprised that the BC NDP went ahead with the provincial election, because it steps on the municipal election cycle — especially since the provincial and municipal governments tend to work closely together.

“A number of the province’s key areas of action right now, notably housing and densification of cities, require some degree of cooperation from cities,” he told Daily Hive on a phone call.

Indeed, Ken Sim issued a press release shortly after Eby called the election, stating that B.C. “has separate election cycles for a reason” and “that principle shouldn’t be set aside because the timing looks politically convenient.”

And since Eby called the election the day after Findlay stepped down, the polls aren’t looking quite so favourable for him anymore.

Further, Prest said that the provincial election “absolutely could” impact the municipal election results. Because two elections happening at the same time has only happened once before, there isn’t good data on its effects. But he suspects that there will be less press coverage of the municipal election, which will inadvertently help the incumbent political parties.

“There just are only so many reporters to go around, so many news outlets to go around,” he said. “There will be less reporting on municipal government. And that will make it harder, I think, in particular, for challengers, for anyone who is trying to break through, because we know that incumbents have a huge advantage, even at the best of times, in municipal governments, something like 90 plus per cent of incumbents win re-election.”

Prest said this makes it more challenging for opposition parties to get their messaging out about their platforms, their critique of the current government, the issues they are campaigning on, and even their name out to voters.

Municipal elections are already complicated given the large number of people on the ballot, and “helping voters navigate those ballots is a challenge in and of itself.”

“So, the more that voters starve for the usual coverage of municipal governments, the more likely it is, I think, that they may either not vote at all because they don’t have information, the awareness isn’t there, or they default to the names that they recognize, which inevitably would tend to favour the incumbents,” Prest said.

As someone who speaks to news media regularly, Prest has seen this himself. Since Eby called the snap provincial election, he said he’s had the same people calling him, but for provincial stories rather than municipal stories.

“The shift in newsrooms has been apparent, and the energy that had been going into reporting at the municipal level is now partially diverted to the provincial level. That’s a real thing that’s happened.”

What are the ballot box questions for each election?

As we approach the municipal election, Prest said that there’s a division between people who are worried about their city’s stability and are focusing on law and order, and those who feel like there is a “sense of declining services from government at a time when we actually need more.”

Another “axis of debate” is around housing, specifically the question of whether cities need greater densification to try to bring down the cost, or “whether the whole idea of trying to meet unmet need in housing is misguided,” given its effects on housing prices and that it allows poor people to live in communities.

Meanwhile, Prest said the debate on the provincial election is currently one of framing.

The BC NDP want voters to see the divisions within the Conservative Party. While there are more moderate Conservatives — and it seems like Lorne Doerkson is one of them — there is also a “more radical populist wing,” which Kerry-Lyne Findley was “tapping into,” Prest said.

“[This] tends to resonate more broadly with a wide range of themes that we associate with MAGA politics. And the NDP wants people to think about that and be concerned with that.”

Meanwhile, the Conservative Party wants voters to focus on the BC NDP’s governance, pointing to the unmet need in health care and education, a multi-billion dollar deficit, and the party’s handling of DRIPA.

As B.C. residents vote, Prest said that the framing will determine their ballot box question.

“Is it conservative instability and radicalism? Is it NDP’s baggage from office? That will go a long way to decide who’s going to win,” he said.