Playoff math: Canucks somehow still have a shot with 7 games left

Apr 15 2022, 5:28 pm

As the math shakes out, the Vancouver Canucks probably won’t make the 2022 Stanley Cup playoffs.

But rational numbers doesn’t always need to intersect with fandom, especially when the team has been winning every game as of late.

With seven games left, they’re still five points out of the final wildcard spot, and four points out of third place in the Pacific Division.

They’re chasing the Vegas Golden Knights, LA Kings, and also either of the Nashville Predators and Dallas Stars.

Vancouver has played more games than Nashville and Dallas, but less than Los Angeles and the same amount as Vegas. LA is 4-5-1 over their last ten games, Nashville is 5-4-1, Dallas is 6-2-2 and Vegas comes in at 7-2-1.

Even on a five-game win-streak (and an overall record of 29-13-8 under Bruce Boudreau), the numbers aren’t great for the Canucks to make the playoffs.

MoneyPuck.com has the Canucks at 4.7% to make the playoffs, a less than one-in-twenty chance of pulling it off, while The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn has them at 7%.

They’ll have to leapfrog several teams to get there, sitting tenth right now on points in the Western Conference.

The maximum amount of points Vancouver can end up with this season is 98, if they win each of their next seven games.

Stretching their current win streak to 12 would be quite literally unprecedented.

The longest win streak in franchise history is at 10 games, having occurred back in 2002. They haven’t won eight or more games in a row since 2011.

The Canucks have the next three days off, before taking on the Dallas Stars on Monday night. The remaining Canucks schedule, with four home dates and three road games is as follows:

The two obvious games to highlight are the next one against Dallas, and the penultimate game of the season against Los Angeles. Lose both, and it’s essentially season over for Vancouver. Lose one, and the path ahead certainly won’t be easy. Win both (especially in regulation), and well, it’d be a major swing in Vancouver’s favour.

At the very least, Vancouver probably needs six wins out of seven games to finish with 96 points. Vegas could hit that number with a minimum record of 4-2-1, LA would be there by going 4-4-0, and both Dallas and Nashville could hit 96 points by going just 3-4-1 over their next eight games.

There is a universe where the Canucks make it in with 94 points and a final stretch of either 5-2-0 or 4-1-2, but they’d be relying on poor stretches from multiple teams ahead of them.

Whatever happens, we’ll know the final fate of these Canucks soon enough, with the season coming to an end two weeks today. Get your seatbelts on, because the ride isn’t over just yet.

Adam LaskarisAdam Laskaris

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