Pettersson's advanced stats explain why Vancouver Canucks star has struggled to score
The NHL is a competitive league, and if the Vancouver Canucks’ highest-paid player continues to significantly underperform, there’s a hard cap on their ceiling.
It’s been a full calendar year since Elias Pettersson has played to his full potential. The Swedish centreman was handed a $92.8 million contract on March 2 last year. Since then, he has 47 points in 68 games, far below what’s expected from one of the league’s top-five highest-paid players.
This year, he has 33 points in 48 games. There are 55 centres alone with more points this year.
Pettersson’s shocking dropoff is puzzling to everyone across the hockey world. It doesn’t seem to be injury-related. He revealed he fought through knee tendonitis during part of last season, but that would’ve healed by now.
It also isn’t luck-based, as his shooting percentage has remained relatively high. And for those who thought trading J.T. Miller would unlock Pettersson, the 26-year-old has no goals and one assist in four games since the deal.
These are supposed to be Pettersson’s best seasons. He’s in his mid-twenties and already has a 100-point campaign under his belt. Instead, it’s been an incredibly frustrating experience. Until the Canucks can unlock Pettersson’s potential, any other moves are futile endeavours.
Taking a peek under the hood at the left-handed forward’s numbers, there are red flags everywhere. He’s creating fewer chances than ever and struggling to win his minutes.
Pettersson is averaging just 4.9 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five this season. That’s the lowest mark of his career thus far. When he scored 100 points, he averaged 7.9 shots per 60 minutes, nearly double what he’s getting today.
His skating has also experienced an unexplainable decline. During the 2022-23 season, Pettersson ranked above the 85th percentile among forwards for top skating speed and speed bursts among 20 miles per hour. This year, he’s below the 60th percentile in both, per NHL Edge data.
This is also the first season, besides his injury-filled 26-game 2020-21 campaign, in which Pettersson has below a 50% Corsi, meaning the Canucks are allowing more shot attempts than they’re creating while he’s on the ice.
Pettersson’s struggles extend far beyond just five-on-five. He has just 11 power play points so far this season, and he is on pace for the worst total of his career. He doesn’t seem to want the puck on the man advantage, and head coach Rick Tocchet has responded by taking him off the top unit at times.
It’s clear something isn’t right just from watching Pettersson. He doesn’t look like the same player he was at his peak and this is an age where he should be reaching a new level, not falling to one below.