Lost in all the Sedin retirement hoopla in the final week of the season was what we would have otherwise been focused on: the NHL Draft Lottery.
With just one game left on the NHL schedule, between Florida and Boston, the draft lottery odds are set for nearly every team (the Panthers can increase their odds slightly with a regulation loss).
That includes the Vancouver Canucks, who finished the season 6-1-2 to derail the tank. They’ve got the sixth-best odds heading into the lottery, which will take place April 28 in Toronto.
While we don’t know where the Canucks will pick for a few weeks, we do know one thing: they won’t be picking fifth again.
The Canucks have just a 7.5% chance to win the first overall pick, and a 23.3% shot to get a top-three pick. It’s impossible for them to move up to fourth or fifth (barring a trade), because those picks aren’t up to chance.
They could stay in sixth spot, or drop down to seventh, eighth, or even ninth.
The odds of them moving down are lower than in previous years, because there’s fewer teams (with lower odds) that can leapfrog them.
Now that this year's lottery probabilities are finally available (https://t.co/n5L9LjUzAV, thanks to @frank_seravalli for the link) I've worked out the chances for every pick for every finishing spot.https://t.co/xKnAd2K5XO pic.twitter.com/z7QPDaYrim
— Micah Blake McCurdy (@IneffectiveMath) March 27, 2018
Here are the Canucks’ odds for each pick:
- 1st overall: 7.5%
- 2nd overall: 7.8%
- 3rd overall: 8%
- 6th overall: 16.3%
- 7th overall: 38.9%
- 8th overall: 19.4%
- 9th overall: 2.1 %
The Canucks should get a good player no matter where they pick, but winning first overall this year would be franchise-altering. Rasmus Dahlin is the consensus No. 1 pick, and the most hyped-up draft eligible defenceman in many years.
The last blueliner to come close to this kind of hype was Victor Hedman, who was drafted after John Tavares in 2009. The last defenceman to be the consensus No. 1 pick was Ed Jovanovski in 1994.
Considering Vancouver needs a defenceman more than any other position, Dahlin would be a gift from the hockey gods. But they’ll need a lot of luck.
All that’s left now is to decide who will represent the Canucks at the lottery. Trevor Linden hasn’t been very lucky lately. Will they send Jim Benning? Stan Smyl?? Fin???
How about the Sedins?
Asked who should rep Canucks at draft lottery, Linden says it's between Henrik and Daniel and himself and Fin
— Omar A (@omarcanuck) April 4, 2018
Oh, who are we kidding? We know Edmonton’s going to win it again.