What new FIFA World Cup rules mean for Canada's chances of advancing to knockout stage
Third time the charm?
For the third time ever, the Canadian men’s national soccer team will play at the FIFA World Cup, after previously qualifying for the tournament in 1986 and 2022.
They’ve played six FIFA World Cup games in their history, and they’ve yet to record a win. Heck, they’ve yet to even earn a tie, recording six losses in six World Cup contests.
However, for multiple reasons, Canada’s chances of earning a win and potentially advancing to the knockout stage are better than ever.
For starters, their group stage opponents are less formidable compared to those they faced in 2022.
During the FIFA World Cup 2022, Canada was in a group with Croatia, Belgium, and Morocco. Heading into that World Cup, Belgium was ranked second globally, Croatia was 12th, and Morocco was 22nd. All three slotted ahead of Canada, which was 41st on FIFA’s official ranking.
In 2026, Canada will battle against Switzerland, Qatar, and Bosnia & Herzegovina for a spot in the knockout round. Of those teams, only Switzerland (19th globally) is ranked ahead of Canada (currently 30th). Qatar is ranked 57th, while Bosnia & Herzegovina is 64th.
If Canada can take care of business against the two teams ranked below them, they’ll ensure a place in the knockout stage for the first time in their history.
But, even if Canada slips up against either team, they still have a path to the knockout stage based on FIFA’s new rules.
BC Place Stadium in its FIFA World Cup mode, as seen on June 8, 2026. (Kenneth Chan)
In previous iterations of the World Cup, 32 teams played in the group stage, with the top two teams in each group (16 teams total) advancing to the knockout rounds.
However, with 48 teams in this year’s World Cup, there’s now an additional knockout stage featuring 32 teams. That means 75 per cent of teams that qualified for the World Cup will get a taste of do-or-die glory this summer.
Because 48 squads are participating in the FIFA World Cup, there are 12 groups of four teams. Along with the top two teams in each group advancing, the eight best third-place teams will also secure their spot in the Round of 32.
Here’s how FIFA will determine which of the eight best third-place teams are after the group stage, if there is a tie in points:
- Goal difference resulting from all group matches
- Greatest number of goals scored in all group matches
- Highest team conduct score (players and team officials) relating to the number of yellow and red cards obtained in all group matches
- Placement in the FIFA Men’s World Rankings
While Canadian soccer fans may just be hoping for a win or a berth of any kind in the knockout round, there is another enticing scenario that could unfold on the West Coast.
If Canada were to somehow win Group B, they would play an additional game on home turf. The winner of Group B will play a third-place qualifying team at BC Place on July 2.