Metro Vancouver could be in for a 'warmer-than-normal' fall
Metro Vancouver residents may want to brace for a fall that feels warmer than usual but with plenty of rain in the mix.
Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) released its seasonal outlook this week, showing a solid chance of above-normal temperatures across much of Canada between September and November.
“In Metro Vancouver, the probability is higher for a warmer-than-normal fall,” said Matt Loney, a meteorologist with ECCC.
“But none of this is carved in stone…these are seasonal predictions, not guarantees.”
The forecast is based on model calculations, which suggest the highest probability is for warmth.
But, Loney told Daily Hive, that doesn’t rule out cold snaps.
“Even with above-normal temperatures, there could still be early frosts or snowfall by November,” he said.
Wetter months ahead?
One factor influencing the outlook is unusually warm ocean temperatures in the northeast Pacific.
That extra warmth can fuel stronger storm systems, especially as the South Coast heads into its rainy season.
“The potential is there for above-normal precipitation over the South Coast,” Loney explained.
“With more moisture available, the intensity of atmospheric rivers could be above normal, even if the frequency is near normal.”
Metro Vancouver’s fall forecast shows warmer and wetter weather, with residents bracing for rain. (Gerry Matthews/Shutterstock)
Right now, conditions are neutral, but Loney said a brief period of weak La Niña is favoured through early winter, before swinging back to neutral. That means Metro Vancouver won’t see the stronger El Niño or La Niña patterns that typically dominate winter weather.
Loney cautioned that seasonal forecasts are best taken as broad guidelines, not a day-to-day roadmap.
“A seasonal outlook is an average over three months, so it’s hard to translate into daily action,” he said.
“The key message is to stay plugged into the day-to-day forecast. That’s where you can really prepare.”
Metro Vancouverites can hopefully extend the stretch of patio season before having to settle into that rain gear for the rest of the season.
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