Metro Vancouver summer forecast calls for heat with 'above normal' temperatures
The official start of summer is just a few weeks away, and if you’ve already been feeling the heat, there’s more of it to come, according to the latest Metro Vancouver summer forecast model.
Daily Hive got in touch with Environment Canada and Climate Change (ECCC) meteorologist Bobby Sekhon, who provided more information about what the region can expect during the upcoming summer months.
Sekhon noted that the data is based on ECCC’s “model output,” which predicts an 87 per cent probability of “above normal temperatures” for June, July, and August for the Metro Vancouver region.
Environment Canada’s seasonal forecast for summer. (ECCC)
Essentially, Metro Vancouver is in for a warm and dry summer, but Sekhon clarified that the modelling comes with “uncertainty” for long-range forecasts.
“The uncertainty increases further in time, but nonetheless, it’s something to go off of. But really, we’ll have to follow the day-to-day and the week-to-week forecast to see how that materializes,” he explained.
“Because, of course, it’s hard to say right now whether those above normal temperatures could be in the form of a heat wave or multiple heat waves, or if it’s just going to be a little bit above normal throughout the summer.”
What are “normal” Metro Vancouver summer temperatures?
When ECCC says temperatures will be “above normal,” it’s helpful to understand what “normal” means in this context.
Sekhon said ECCC bases its “normal” temperatures on climatology data from 1991 to 2020.
“So it’s looking at basically all the days in that … 30-year period [and] they’ll change through the season,” he said.
“These days, the normal high temperature for Vancouver is 18°C and a low of 10°C,” but those will also differ as the summer goes on, noted Sekhon.
A short-term outlook
While the ECCC cannot provide an exact picture of just how hot summer temperatures will be, Sekhon was able to speak to the short-term forecast.
As we approach this weekend, Sekhon said temperatures will “boost back up” across the region and could be fairly similar to the conditions last Wednesday, where it felt close to 30°C inland.
ECCC
Temperatures will be in the mid-to-high 20s, and near the water, we’re looking at low to mid-20s. So that’s going to be the next heat [spell] coming up,” he said.
But it won’t last too long because temperatures will drop back “down to normal” next week.
The meteorologist added that regardless of the seasonal forecast, the extreme weather patterns of the past few summers indicate that residents and government officials need to be prepared.
“It’s not just [the] late July [to] August period that gets really hot. Here, it can get hot anytime, even in June. So I think preparedness is key, well in advance of any extreme weather that is coming up.”
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