Here's what the next three months of fall weather may look like in B.C.
While parts of the Vancouver forecast for the first week of autumn are looking wet, the next three months of fall weather may end up being warmer than normal.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) latest temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts for the September to November 2026 timeframe were released late last month, allowing for an early peek at how the upcoming months of fall weather may impact the Lower Mainland.
The three-month seasonal outlook is pushed out by ECCC at the end of each month and looks at meteorological trends for the current season.
Daily Hive spoke with Matt Albers, a meteorologist with ECCC, about what weather British Columbians may see over the next three months.
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“Generally speaking, to round out September into October, we should expect it to be warmer with above-average temperatures,” explained Albers. Though there may be a dip in mid-October, things are still going to be quite warm.
“As for precipitation, though, there is a chance of a recent increase in showers; things will still be below normal.”
The ECCC seasonal forecasts are based on a 20-member ensemble of predictions, 10 members from each of two coupled atmosphere-ocean-land physical climate models. The forecast probabilities are estimated by first computing the anomalies or departures from normal for each ensemble member and then applying the calibration procedure to these values.
ECCC
Albers added that many parts of Canada are experiencing a strong El Niño pattern at the moment.
“What that means is warmer and drier weather, which will help shift the jet stream further north,” explained the meteorologist. “This leads to warmer temperatures into fall and early winter.
“We will still get an opportunity for winter weather, but it generally leans towards a nicer winter.”
You can view the full probabilistic forecasts issued by ECCC online.
If you’re looking for some fun events to check out around Metro Vancouver during autumn, no matter the weather, take a look at our list of over 40 fun and fantastic things to do around Vancouver this fall.
Vancouver International Film Festival, Halloween events, and more. There’s something for everyone to enjoy.