Does it makes sense for the Canucks to trade Thatcher Demko?
Former Vancouver Canucks captain Bo Horvat and current goaltender Thatcher Demko have a few things in common.
Both players were once considered top prospects for the Canucks. They seemingly hit on their potential and became major pieces of the team in recent years.
Now, it’s fair to wonder if Demko, like Horvat, will also be traded from the Canucks.
The netminder is recently popping up in trade rumours, after all.
It started when Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the Canucks are potentially shopping Demko. Farhan Lalji added fuel to the fire on The Athletic’s VANcast when he said this:
“I’ve heard from people around that are close to it that Demko doesn’t want to be here,” Lalji said. “There’s conversation in the background that Demko isn’t enamoured with the market, the scrutiny, the organization. Pick it, it’s all of it.”
However, Lalji’s report has been refuted by others, including NHL.com’s Kevin Woodley and CHEK TV’s Rick Dhaliwal.
Woodley said he ran into Demko and he doesn't get the sense he wants out.
Mentions he can't speak to the organization's point of view.
(Canucks Central)
— Taj (@taj1944) February 2, 2023
According to Dhaliwal, he can confirm as of this morning Demko has not made a trade request. "It's all outside noise."#canucks
— BuckFoston (@BuckFoston_) February 1, 2023
Although Dhaliwal reported that Demko has not made a trade request, he did report earlier last week that “his name is out there” in trade talks.
General Manager Patrik Allvin and his staff clearly cannot be concerned about rumours, though.
The question the Canucks need to ask themselves is: does it really make sense to trade Demko?
Demko has been a saviour for floundering Canucks
It’s an easy cop-out to say that “goaltending is weird.”
And hey, sometimes it is.
But, if you look at some of the top goaltenders statistically over the past three seasons, a lot of familiar names stand out.
From 2019-20 through 2021-22, here’s a look at the top 12 goaltenders in the NHL in terms of goals saved above average, at even-strength (minimum 3000 minutes played). This is a measure of how well a goaltender has performed based on the shot quality his team is giving up.
NaturalStatTrick.com
Goaltending might be weird, but there are no real surprises on that list.
Three of those 12 goaltenders have played in the most recent Stanley Cup Finals: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Anton Khudobin, and Darcy Kuemper. Two others have won two of the past three Vezinas, with Igor Shesterkin and Connor Hellebuyck.
Entering this season, Demko belonged in the conversation as being one of the best goalies in the NHL. He’s also performed well despite backstopping a team that gave up the most scoring chances per-60 in the NHL between 2019-20 and 2021-22.
In spite of his team, Demko had the best even-strength save percentage in the league last season.
Now, this year was suboptimal for Demko, but the sample size was small. Heck, Roberto Luongo was notorious for starting slow to begin the season, and he was playing behind a team that was much better defensively than this version of the Canucks.
Canucks could have trouble dealing him midseason
Goalie trades in the middle of the season are rare.
You can thank former Canucks netminder Ryan Miller for that.
Miller was considered one of the best goaltenders in the league in 2014, when he was traded at the deadline from the Buffalo Sabres to the St. Louis Blues for a haul, including Jaroslav Halak, two roster players, and two high draft picks.
After the trade, Miller went from great to average. The Blues lost in the opening round of the playoffs, and Miller went on to sign with Vancouver during the offseason.
So yeah, goaltending is just weird sometimes.
Since then, there have been almost no blockbuster trades involving goaltenders in the middle of the season.
The closest example is when Robin Lehner was dealt from the Chicago Blackhawks to the Vegas Golden Knights for a second-round pick, prospect Slava Denim (a 2018 fourth-round pick), and goaltender Malcolm Subban.
At the time, Lehner’s three-year rolling GSAA of 0.21 was comparable to Demko. However, he had been in a goaltending timeshare with both the Blackhawks and his previous team, the New York Islanders, prior to the trade.
If nothing but a similar return is on the table for Demko, then there’s no point in trading him.
Trading Demko would signal a longer-term rebuild
This Canucks management team has constantly talked about improving the team quickly, especially when president Jim Rutherford has been around a microphone.
However, trading your franchise netminder, who’s signed to a favourable deal for three years after this season, would signal something otherwise.
There’s a scenario where it does make sense. The Canucks still have gaping organization holes at centre, but especially on defence. If there’s an offer on the table for Demko that can fetch the Canucks a couple of noteworthy pieces to fill those holes, then trading him is something the organization does have to consider.
However, trading Demko would leave a sizeable void in net.
And, aside from a small blip at the beginning of this season, he’s proven during his short NHL career that he’s one of the best goaltenders in the league.
If he’s traded, replacing him won’t just be difficult, it might be impossible.
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