5 comparable contracts relevant to Canucks' negotiation with Hronek
The Vancouver Canucks have a big decision to make with Filip Hronek. The 26-year-old is a pending restricted free agent and his career-best season means he’s due for a big raise.
The Canucks surrendered quite a few assets to acquire Hronek and he’s been a great fit. Not only has he set new career highs in virtually every stat, but he’s also helped unlock the best from Quinn Hughes.
The 26-year-old is a restricted free agent so the Canucks do have some negotiating power. Still, with 45 points in 69 games this season, Hronek will be eyeing a big bag of money.
Both the team and the player’s camp will use other contracts from around the league to aid their negotiations. Here are five players who signed as restricted free agents over the past few years that could offer clues to the structure of Hronek’s potential extension.
1. Mikhail Sergachev, Tampa Bay Lightning
- Stats in year signed: 78 GP, 7 G, 31 A, 38 PTS
- Contract term: Eight years
- Contract AAV: $8.5 million
- Year signed: 2022
- Signing age: 25
- Cap percentage: 10.3%
While Sergachev’s numbers in the season before signing this deal look pedestrian, he had already strung together a few impressive years. He was also a big part of the Lightning’s playoff success and helped them win two Stanley Cups.
This dollar number is likely higher than the Canucks want to go. Sergachev did have the playoff experience and multiple years with gaudy scoring numbers to draw on in negotiations.
This was also an eight-year deal, which ensured that the Lightning locked up the D-man for as long as possible. This contract likely serves as the ceiling for what any long-term extension between Hronek and the Canucks could look like.
2. Vince Dunn, Seattle Kraken
- Stats in year signed: 81 GP, 14 G, 50 A, 64 PTS
- Contract term: Four years
- Contract AAV: $7.35 million
- Year signed: 2023
- Signing age: 26
- Cap percentage: 8.8%
This is the most recently signed contract on this list as Vince Dunn inked this deal last year. The Seattle Kraken locked up one of the conference’s best defencemen, although it was just a four-year deal.
The point total that Dunn put up the year before signing this contract is similar to what Hronek is doing this year. Dunn had 0.79 points per game, while Hronek is at 0.65, although the Canucks defenceman plays very little on the power play.
This is likely the best comparable for a Hronek contract and a structure that will be very similar to any potential extension. The Canucks may be able to get more terms at a similar number due to Hronek’s slightly weaker stats.
3. Jacob Trouba, New York Rangers
- Stats in year signed: 82 GP, 8 G, 42 A, 5o PTS
- Contract term: Seven years
- Contract AAV: $8 million
- Year signed: 2019
- Signing age: 25
- Cap percentage: 9.82%
The physical Jacob Trouba signed this deal with the New York Rangers after scoring 50 points in 2018-19, a similar number to what Hronek is likely to finish with.
The 6-foot-3 defenceman is better in his own zone than Hronek and brings a physical element that few NHL players can match. The Canucks defenceman cannot use his defensive play to negotiate for a bigger contract as he’s far from excellent in his own zone.
Trouba was eventually named the Rangers captain and occupied a larger team role than Hronek does for the Canucks. This dollar amount likely represents a bit more than Hronek will get, although it’s in a similar ballpark.
4. Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets
- Stats in year signed: 54 GP, 3 G, 29 A, 32 PTS
- Contract term: Four years
- Contract AAV: $5.875 million
- Year signed: 2021
- Signing age: 25
- Cap percentage: 7.21%
This is definitely the low scenario for any potential Hronek contract. Neal Pionk signed this deal with the Winnipeg Jets after scoring 0.59 points per game, not far off the 0.65 that Hronek is clicking at this season.
Hronek’s added value as a perfect partner to Hughes and the fact he has a better scoring rate over his career means that he deserves more than this. Still, the difference in the raw offensive numbers from Pionk is not too drastic.
While Hronek’s camp will not be bringing up Pionk’s contract, the Canucks might in an attempt to keep the dollar value from ballooning too much.
5. Matthew Dumba, Minnesota Wild
- Stats in year signed: 82 GP, 14 G, 36 A, 50 PTS
- Contract term: Five years
- Contract AAV: $6 million
- Year signed: 2018
- Signing age: 23
- Cap percentage: 7.55%
This is an older contract that was signed more than five years ago at this point but it does give an idea of what Hronek’s offensive numbers might earn him.
Dumba had a very good offensive season prior to signing this contract. While Hronek will likely best the 50-point mark, Dumba’s 14 goals are more than the Canucks defenceman will get this year.
With the salary cap expected to be around $87.5 million next season, the cap percentage of Dumba’s contract would equate to just over $6.6 million per season. This is also on the low end of what a possible Hronek deal will look like.
From looking at the comparables, it seems like a fair deal for Hronek would likely land somewhere around 8-9% of the total salary cap over six to eight years. If we assume the projections of an $87.5 million cap come true, that would put the average annual value somewhere between $7 and $7.8 million.
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