Vancouver Canucks can still make the playoffs if this unlikely scenario plays out
The Vancouver Canucks aren’t out of the playoff race yet.
While they would’ve been mathematically eliminated with a loss last night, the club pulled off a historic last-minute comeback to keep their postseason hopes alive.
With four games remaining, the Canucks still have life, although the odds are heavily stacked against them. Hockey analytics site MoneyPuck gives the team a 0.2% chance of making the playoffs.
The Canucks are six points out of the last playoff spot in the Western Conference, currently occupied by the Minnesota Wild. That’s a lot of ground to make up with a week left in the regular season, and the Canucks need to surpass the Wild as they don’t own the tiebreaker.
To make matters worse, the Canucks also need to worry about the Calgary Flames, who are slightly ahead of them in the standings.
While it’s daunting, there are still multiple scenarios that would result in Vancouver making the playoffs.
NHL.com
The most likely of the unlikely scenarios has the Canucks winning out and getting some help from the other teams in the chase. If the following happens, the Canucks will make the playoffs:
- Canucks win all four games
- Wild lose all four games (maximum one overtime loss)
- Flames get no more than five points from last five games (or get six points, but Canucks have more regulation wins)
If the Canucks win all four remaining games, they’ll have 93 points. The Wild could then only get one point over their last four contests to end up at 92. Even then, the Canucks would still need the Flames to sputter out.
The Canucks trail the Flames in the tiebreaker by one regulation win. If the Canucks can make up that difference, the Flames could also end up on 93 points and still miss the playoffs. If not, the Canucks will need the Flames to get just five points from their last five games to finish at 92 points.
There is another more unlikely scenario that would also see the Canucks make the playoffs. They could lose one game in overtime, although they’d then need the Wild to completely lose out.
- Canucks win three games and lose one in overtime
- Wild lose all four games (all regulation losses)
- Flames get no more than four points from last five games (or get five points, but Canucks have more regulation wins)
In this scenario, the Canucks end up with 92 points, while the Wild finish with the 91 they currently have. The Flames could then either also end up on 91 points or reach 92 if the Canucks surpass them in the tiebreaker.
If the Canucks drop a game in regulation or the Wild win a game, the playoff dream is over.
The Wild host the NHL-worst San Jose Sharks tonight, and the Canucks will be hoping for a massive upset. After that, the Wild face some tougher teams, including the hungry Canucks and Flames, before ending the year against the Anaheim Ducks.
The Canucks need to focus on beating the mighty Colorado Avalanche tomorrow. After that, they face the Wild and the lowly Sharks before ending the year against the Vegas Golden Knights. There’s a chance the Golden Knights will be resting key players for that game, something that could work in the Canucks favour.
If the Canucks do make the playoffs, they’d almost certainly face a Winnipeg Jets team, which has beaten them in two of three contests this year.
While it’s not looking good, the playoff dream isn’t dead yet for the reigning Pacific Division champions. There are still a few unlikely scenarios in which they could sneak in, and if this team has proven anything, it’s that they won’t quit until all hope is lost.