Why the Canucks' hands are tied with Kevin Lankinen
An 808 is fantastic when you’re trying to make an old-school hip-hop beat.
It’s less good when it’s the save percentage of the Vancouver Canucks’ number-one goaltender.
Through eight starts and nine games played, Kevin Lankinen has the worst save percentage in the NHL at .808 after allowing an NHL-worst 43 goals against on 177 shots.
In fact, if Lankinen didn’t start another game this season, he would set a new record for the worst save percentage in NHL history by a goaltender with at least eight starts, at least since they started recording save percentage in the 1955-56 season.
Lankinen has given up at least five goals against in six of his eight starts, giving him a goals-against average (GAA) of 6.03, which, unsurprisingly, ranks dead last in the NHL.
That’s the worst GAA by a goaltender with at least five starts in over 40 years, since Eddie Mio of the Detroit Red Wings had a 6.33 GAA in 12 starts back in 1985-86.
In other words, Lankinen has been historically bad.
“We need guys that are going to be competitive and give us an opportunity to win”
Let’s be clear: the Canucks haven’t been great defensively in front of Lankinen. They’ve given up a lot of grade-A chances, with Tuesday night’s game against the Anaheim Ducks a prime example.
But they’ve also been just as bad defensively in front of Leevi Meriläinen, and the difference between the two goaltenders is stark.
By the reckoning of hockey analytics website Natural Stat Trick, at 5-on-5, Lankinen and Meriläinen have an identical expected goals against per 60 minutes of 3.3, meaning they’ve faced roughly the equivalent rate of scoring chances and high-danger chances.
At 5-on-5, Meriläinen has a save percentage of .912, which is above league average.
Lankinen has a 5-on-5 save percentage of .844 â dead last in the league.
Facing the same quality of shots, the two goaltenders are miles apart in their results.
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Head coach Manny Malhotra has been crystal clear about why Meriläinen has been given a string of starts, even as the Canucks have still been losing a lot of games.
“Every game he’s played this year, he’s given us an opportunity to win,” said Malhotra. “He’s made some incredible stops, but I always talk about just making the stops we expect him to make, the routine ones. He’s pretty dialed in, in that regard.”
“The run of games, it’s because of the fact that he gives us an opportunity to win every night,” he added. “Thatâs the messaging for the group: we need guys that are going to be competitive and give us an opportunity to win.”
The implication behind that statement seems obvious: Lankinen has not been giving the Canucks an opportunity to win; he has not been making the routine saves; he has not been competitive.
After Tuesday night’s game, Malhotra was asked about Lankinen, and he took his time to carefully measure his words.
“Everybody wants to contribute more; everybody wants to do better,” said Malhotra. “He’s competing for us. He’s competing. He’s not getting the results he wants. He’s not getting those timely saves, perhaps.
“But he’s continuing to put the work in daily; he’s going over video with Marco [Torenius], he’s doing the extra on the ice â so itâs not for lack of effort on his part. He’s doing the things he needs to do to improve his game.”
Buyout, trade, or keep?
The issue is, at this point, Lankinen is practically unplayable.
Worse, he’s in only the second year of a five-year contract that pays him $4.5 million per season. He’s signed for three more seasons after this one.
With $2 million of that contract coming as a signing bonus, over the next three seasons, it would be expensive to buy out and would lead to dead cap space through the 2032-33 season, at a time when the Canucks would be looking to be competitive and theoretically spend to the cap.
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The major complication is that at some point Thatcher Demko is going to return, though that’s likely around two months away.
The Canucks likely want to hang onto Meriläinen, as the young goaltender looks like he’s potentially part of their future, so he’s not going to be going on waivers.
Some might wonder why the Canucks wouldn’t just put Lankinen on waivers, but his contract has a no-movement clause this season. He can’t be put on waivers and sent down to the AHL without him agreeing to do so.
This leaves just two options: the Canucks could carry all three goaltenders on the roster, or they could make a trade.
A trade seems like a non-starter, though. Who’s going to trade for a goaltender with historically bad numbers? And, with the no-movement clause, Lankinen could potentially veto any trade the Canucks might be able to arrange.
That opens the possibility of keeping Lankinen and trading Thatcher Demko. But again, who’s going to trade for a goaltender who is constantly injured?
The Canucks probably don’t want to carry three goaltenders, but they don’t seem to have another option.
How to get back to good
Of course, Lankinen could turn things around over the rest of the season. He’s done it before. But right now there are no indications that he will do so.
One observation made in the press box on Tuesday night is that Lankinen looks like he’s guessing where shots are going to go, instead of trusting his structure and reading the play in front of him.
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Consider how Calgary Flames’ goaltender Devin Cooley described it when he’s at his best.
“My conscious brain is really bad at playing goalie,” said Cooley. “So, I have to let my unconscious brain do the work because it reacts a lot quicker.
“When I’m having too much fun, and I’m smiling and talking to everybody and hanging out, what happens is that shifts me into more conscious brain goalie. Then I can’t react in time, I’m slow, I’m behind the play, and then I give up seven goals.”
Lankinen isn’t “having too much fun,” but he certainly seems like he’s overthinking things on the ice, instead of playing by instinct. He hasn’t given himself much reason to trust himself this season.
In other words, Lankinen appears to be goaltending from his conscious brain, guessing at shots instead of trusting his unconscious brain to recognize patterns and know where the puck is going before he needs to consciously think about it.
Getting back to playing by instinct will be a major challenge for Lankinen: it’s incredibly difficult to stop thinking and get into a flow state.
But all of the work and effort in practice and watching video won’t do any good if Lankinen is still thinking and guessing on the ice.