Could Canucks get Bedard? A look at the NHL draft lottery odds

Expectations were high for Connor Bedard heading into the World Juniors this year, yet somehow he has exceeded them beyond any reasonable expectation.

The 17-year-old North Vancouver kid isn’t just breaking long-standing Canadian records, he’s shattering them. It’s becoming abundantly clear that Bedard is the type of talent that could change the fortunes of an entire franchise.

Consequently, the hoopla regarding this year’s draft lottery could reach Connor McDavid levels, when multiple NHL teams appeared to actively tank their seasons for a chance to grab him in 2015.

The draft lottery rules have changed in recent years, with the NHL providing the team that finishes dead last with a 25.5% chance at winning the first overall pick, beginning last year. The Buffalo Sabres, as the last-placed team in 2015, had just a 20% chance of getting McDavid. The odds of winning first overall for the last-place team dropped to 18% when the Vegas Golden Knights joined the league in 2017, and to 16.6% when the Seattle Kraken made its NHL debut in 2021.

Only the top two picks will be decided by the weighted lottery, meaning no team can drop no more than two spots. Prior to 2021, the top three picks were up for grabs in the lottery.

Teams are only permitted to move up a maximum of 10 spots in the lottery, so only the 11-worst teams this season will have a chance at getting Bedard.

The Canucks are currently the eighth-worst team in the NHL by points, and ninth-worst by points percentage.

The worst teams in the NHL this season.

The ninth-worst team in the NHL will get a 5% chance at winning the Bedard sweepstakes, and a 5.4% chance at winning the second overall selection.

The Canucks are 15 points clear of the Chicago Blackhawks, so finishing dead last is likely out of the equation for Vancouver. But sinking to as low as fourth-worst is certainly within the realm of possibility.

Current draft lottery odds. Florida traded their pick to Montreal for Ben Chiarot last year (Tankathon.com)

The fourth-worst team will have a 9.5% chance of snagging Bedard, and a 9.8% shot at winning the second overall pick.

Getting Bedard would not only be a dream come true for the Canucks, who have never picked first in the draft in their 53-year history, but also likely a dream come true for the teenage phenom as well. Bedard is not only a local product, he’s a big Canucks fan, and hasn’t been shy to let people know.

I asked Connor Bedard if he’s been watching the #Canucks start to the season:

He laughed & said: “I try to watch as many games as I can, I’m obviously a big fan since I was a kid. I’ve been watching a bit, we’ve been pretty busy so I’ve missed a few games. Been trying to watch” pic.twitter.com/qIg8JO3YZb

— Randip Janda (@RandipJanda) November 24, 2022

But of course, as a Canucks fan, Bedard is probably also aware of the fact that good things just don’t happen to Vancouver in the draft lottery.

The Canucks had a 34.2% chance at winning a top-three pick in 2016, only to drop two spots and pick fifth. They dropped three spots in 2017 when they had a 35.2% shot at a top-three pick. They fell back one spot in 2018, and again in 2019 too.

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