Number of Canadians worried about mortgage renewals up this year: study

The number of Canadians worried about mortgage renewals is up this year: study

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Concerns among Canadians regarding mortgage renewals are on the rise this year in comparison to 2023.

That’s according to a recent survey by market research and analytics company Leger, commissioned by BNN Bloomberg and Ratesdotca.

The study said that, among those surveyed, about 60%, or three-fifths, of Canadian homeowners are worried about renewals.

That number is a drop of 4% from the last time the same survey was conducted in July 2023.

It’s also expected that about $251 billion of mortgages will be up for renewal in 2024.

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There were 1,536 Canadians older than 18 years surveyed between January 19 and 21 for the online survey. It was conducted using Leger’s online panel.

According to the survey, more than 70% of people aged 18 to 34 say they are concerned about higher mortgage payments, while 67% of those between the ages 35 and 54 say they are concerned.

There, however, could be some relief in sight for those renewing this year, according to John Shmuel, the managing editor of Ratesdotca.

“If the Bank of Canada (BoC) lowers rates this year, it will provide relief to everyone renewing, while providing immediate relief to those with variable-rate mortgages, but that’s a big if,” he told Daily Hive Urbanized.

“Inflation, especially core inflation, remains above target and the BoC clearly does not want to risk reigniting it, so while we may see cuts this year, they are by no means guaranteed, and I would not be banking on them if I were preparing for a renewal this year.”

Shmuel suggested that people plan for higher rates so they are prepared, whether that means decreasing spending or taking on some extra work.

Economists and experts have predicted that the Bank of Canada could be in a position to lower the interest rate starting in the middle of 2024.

By the end of this year, the interest rate could be lowered to 4.25%.

“If rates do end up going lower, well, you end up with some extra money, which is always a plus,” Shmuel said.

Some other findings of the survey include:

73% of respondents aged 18 to 34, and 67% of respondents aged 35 to 54, say they are concerned about higher mortgage payments at renewal.
39% of Canadian homeowners say they are not concerned about higher mortgage payments at renewal, up 4% from July 2023.
Among respondents who say they are not concerned about higher mortgage payments on renewal, 53% are older than 55 and are more likely to be living in suburban and rural areas at 43% and 44%, respectively.
57% of respondents have a plan to accommodate the increase in mortgage payments, with 39% of those planning to decrease spending in other areas, 10% planning to use savings, 5% planning to take on debt and 3% planning to sell their homes.
The percentage of respondents without a plan to accommodate the rise in mortgage payment amounts declined 4% from July 2023 to 17% from 21%.

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Survey methodology

An online survey of 1,536 Canadians, older than 18 years, was completed between January 19 and 21, 2024, using Leger’s online panel.

No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample — i.e., a web panel in this case.

For comparative purposes, the survey says, a probability sample of 1,536 respondents would have a margin error of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20.