Slow resurgence of Canada's real estate market to begin later in 2024

The latest activity suggests that Canada’s real estate market will begin the slow and long rebound process in the second half of 2024.

According to a new market update by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), there were “some early signs of renewed life” in June 2024 after the Bank of Canada’s first policy interest rate cut at the start of the month.

“It wasn’t a ‘blow the doors off’ month by any means, but Canada’s housing numbers did perk up a bit on a month-over-month basis in June following the first Bank of Canada rate cut,” said Shaun Cathcart, the senior economist for the CREA, in a statement.

“Year-over-year comparisons don’t look great mainly because of how many buyers were still jumping into the market last spring, but that’s a story about last year. What’s happening right now is that sales were up from May to June, market conditions tightened for the first time this year, and prices nationally ticked higher for the first time in 11 months.”

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James Mabey, the chair of the CREA, further adds, “The second half of 2024 is widely expected to see the beginnings of a slow and gradual return of buyers into the housing market.”

The number of home sales across the country went up by 3.7% in June 2024 compared to May 2024, but it was down by 9.4% compared to June 2023.

The number of newly listed properties went up by 1.5% from May 2024 to June 2024.

The home price index increased by 0.1% month over month but was down by 3.4% compared to June 2023. The national average sale price dropped by 1.6% from June 2023.

As of the end of June 2024, about 180,000 homes were listed for sale across Canada, representing a 26% increase from June 2023 but still below the historical averages of about 200,000 for this time of the year.

The number of new listings in the country’s major housing markets, Greater Toronto and Metro Vancouver, increased by 1.5% month over month.

The Bank of Canada’s next policy interest update and monetary policy report is scheduled for July 24, 2024. Further cuts to the policy interest rate at this juncture could accelerate the real estate market’s recovery.