What Canada's path to Olympic men's basketball medal looks like
The Canadian Olympic men’s basketball team is gunning for gold in Paris.
After being drawn into a group with Australia, Greece, and Spain — three countries all with varying histories of international basketball success — Canada closed out their group stage on Friday on top of the group.
Though things got tighter than many would’ve liked, Canada went 3-0 in the group stage, winning by an 88-85 score over Spain in their final game of the round robin.
And while international basketball has been on the rise over the past few years, there’s one opponent that still strikes fear in their opponents more than any other: Team USA.
Led by 39-year-old LeBron James and a host of NBA All-Stars, the Americans headed to France as the massive favourites to win their fifth gold medal in a row. The team is 2-0 through their first two group stage games and has been firing on all cylinders to begin their Olympic competition.
The United States is a 33.5-point favourite over Puerto Rico in tomorrow’s match. It’s the kind of game that the United States has historically dominated over the years, having won the gold medal in men’s basketball in 16 out of 19 Olympic Games that they’ve competed in.
Saturday’s draw will indicate who Canada will play in Tuesday’s quarterfinals.
The draw puts each of the eight teams in one of four groups Pot D, E, F, and G, sorted by record and point differential. Teams from D and G will play each other, while teams from E and F will also face off.
While Canada will finish as one of the top three seeds in the tournament, they’re not likely to finish in the top two spots. Despite the three wins, Canada will finish with a point differential of just +20 in the group stage. The United States currently holds a point differential of +43 through two games, while Germany leads the way with a +47.
Assuming the United States win tomorrow, Canada will be in pot E, meaning they’ll play whoever the fifth-place team is. Australia has clinched a sixth-place finish, but given that they were in the same round-robin group, Canada cannot face them again until either the gold or bronze medal game.
Given the way the bracket draws out, it’s possible that Canada could be forced up against the United States as early as the semifinal, and could only play them in the quarterfinal if they suffer a shocking loss to Puerto Rico.
Germany (and likely the United States) will play against the two lowest-ranked teams, while Australia will match up the fourth-place team. France and Brazil have also qualified, while Serbia, South Sudan, and Greece could all get in based on tomorrow’s game. Serbia and South Sudan face off in Lille in the final game of the group stage, following the USA against Puerto Rico.
If that’s too much basketball mumbo-jumbo for you to take in, don’t worry: in a little over 24 hours, we’ll have a good update of what the final Olympic bracket will look like.