Canada’s top health officials say that the country could see as many as 262,000 COVID-19 cases by November 8, and up to 10,400 deaths, but reducing contacts by 25% can curb the second wave.
On Friday, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Teresa Tam, released new COVID-19 modelling and epidemiology data that shows where the virus could be heading.
The federal government’s latest short-term forecast of COVID-19 shows a continuation of the virus’ growth. Cumulative cases are predicted to reach between 251,800 and 262,000 by November 8. They predict cumulative deaths to reach between 10,285 and 10,400 in the same time period.
According to the latest forecast, a stronger response is needed now to slow the spread of COVID-19.
“If we increase, or even maintain our current rate of contact with others, the epidemic in Canada is forecasted to continue increasing steeply,” said Tam “To bend the epidemic curve and reduce transmission to lower levels, as illustrated by the blue line [image below], we must really reduce our number of contacts as much as possible. ”
Officials say Canadians must reduce our current rate of contacts by 25% in order to get the epidemic under control in most locations.
Tam said temporary population-based health measures, including closures and restrictions, may be needed to decrease contact rates and slow the spread in communities where the virus is currently spreading.
Daily case counts of COVID-19 continue to increase nationally, according to the data.
The growth in Quebec’s case counts has gradually stabilize, Tam said, but the province has still averaged around 1,000 cases per day in recent weeks. In the last two weeks, Ontario, British Columbia, and the prairie provinces have all marked their highest daily case counts since the beginning of the pandemic.
On Thursday, Ontario’s top health officials said that the spread of the virus is slowing in the province.
“After Canadians worked with public health to hammer the COVID-19 curve in the spring, we had our first dance over the summer,” Tam said.
“We held our lead on COVID-19 for some time, but since resuming more activities over the summer, and perhaps slipping on a few of our key dance steps — consistent physical distancing, exemplary hygiene, and mask wearing — some of us have lost our lead. But I know Canadians can dance and take back the lead again.”
As of October 29, there are 228,542 total COVID-19 cases in Canada and 10,074 deaths.