BC's spring forecast is out and we are in for a bumpy ride

BC’s weather forecast for April is out, and we are in for a bit of a rollercoaster as we gear up for summer, according to environmental experts. But what will it be like for Vancouver weather-wise?

In terms of looking into the future, Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist Armel Castellan says, overall, we will see a warming trend and temperatures above seasonal over the next few months across the province.

But each day can bring a different weather adventure, which we are already seeing with some wild weather at the tail end of March.

“You can see that the south of BC is white (equal chances officially for any of the three categories, but a warmer (yellow) signal over the island and adjacent waters in the pacific), meanwhile a cooler category coming in from southern AB and Montana to nuance the output,” he said. (ECCC)

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“We’ll see relatively strong UV index potential for getting sunburned, even, and then having a thunderstorm and getting hail,” Castellan said about the spring weather rollercoaster.

That follows a similar pattern we’ve seen so far this year, due in part to an El Nino weather pattern that has left skiers and snowboarders depressed and has wildfire crews already preparing for a potentially rough summer.

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Temperatures could be as high as one to two degrees above seasonal for the month of April in parts of BC, he said, which isn’t good news for all but could offer some perfect patio conditions.

Holiday weekend prediction

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“The second half of Easter weekend is going to be anomalously warm, to the tune of maybe even seven, eight degrees warmer than seasonal. And then we drop down, and that’s the typical thing: when you go up, you must come down, and by kind of mid-to-late next week, it will be maybe even a couple of degrees cooler than normal,” he explained.

Are we in for a rainy spring?

A look at the rain expected in April. (ECCC)

What the summer will look like in terms of wildfires will be impacted a lot by the freshet and how much rain we get in the spring.

“[We have been in] drought or precipitation deficits for the better part of two years, and so… there is so much pressure on Mother Nature for May and arguably even more in June for what we call the cold low season.”

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Adding, “Those systems can bring good amounts of rain for many days in a row if they show up and deliver. Now, not every year do we get a really good low season, and therefore, we are in a lot of trouble for an earlier wildfire season that comes even early, early July. But sometimes, like we saw last year, it started at the end of May and in June with the fires in Alberta. So those things are the main concerns,” he said.

He says precipitation forecast is difficult to predict beyond four days, but they are able to have a general idea. A four-week output shows the south coast, with places like Vancouver, set to feel below-normal precipitation until about May with above-seasonal temperatures.

April could be “consistently dry” for at least the first week of April in Vancouver.

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While dry is great for those spring festivals, it is not what the environment needs right now.

BC’s River Forecast Centre is predicted to release its outlook for the summer on Monday and discuss the drought conditions in more detail.