Spring is still over a month away, but we’ve got some early info that suggests BC is in for a warmer-than-average season, and summer will likely be more of the same.
While it’s too early to tell whether we could see another heat-dome-like summer, there’s a good likelihood we will be seeing above-seasonal temperatures.
We connected with Dr. Bill Merryfield, a research scientist at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis with Environment and Climate Change Canada, who said there’s up to an 80% chance of average temperatures in March, April, and May being above normal.
Merryfield says these weather trends are thanks to the lingering influence of the current El Niño.
“The overall effect [of El Niño] is a dramatic warming of surface waters by up to several degrees between South America and around the Dateline. This, in turn, causes wind patterns to shift, which tends to modify weather patterns over much of the globe,” Merryfield told Daily Hive.
“In BC, the main influence is to increase the odds of having a relatively warm winter and spring. This can result in less lowland snow, particularly near the coast.”
How warm might it be this spring?
Merryfield says it could be roughly in the range of the warmest 1/3 of spring seasons between 1991 and 2020.
Things will likely follow the same pattern for summer.
Merryfield says there’s up to a 70% chance that average summer temperatures will be above normal in BC, meaning that the odds for a hot summer are elevated compared to an average year.
Could it be an extreme summer? Merryfield says it’s too early to tell.
“What can be said is that a high forecast probability for above normal summer temperatures implies an increased chance of having some very hot days, although currently, we cannot be more specific than that.”
Are you excited or bummed out at the prospect of a potentially warmer-than-usual spring and summer in BC? Let us know in the comments.
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