BC real estate market "more resilient than expected" so far in 2023

A single-family neighbourhood backdropped by the transit-oriented development towers around SkyTrain Marine Drive Station in South Vancouver. (Google Maps)

“The BC housing market has been more resilient than expected in 2023,” according to Brendon Ogmundson, the chief economist with the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA), in a market update today.

Based on the trends seen from data compiled from the province’s regional real estate boards, BCREA is estimating a 2.8% year-over-year decline in home sales for 2023, and a 2% drop in the average home price to $976,600.

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Within the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s (REBGV) jurisdiction, home sales in 2023 are forecasted to drop by 4.3% year-over-year, while the average home price will see a slight year-over-year uptick of 0.2% to $1.275 million.

For the Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB), home sales in its jurisdiction in 2023 are predicted to fall by 0.7% year-over-year, with the average home price falling by 5.2% year-over-year to $1.04 million.

Home prices increased this year amidst below-average sales activity due to low inventory.

Ogmundson notes sales volumes could slow down further with the Bank of Canada’s unexpected further increases to the policy interest rate, and the expectation that the Bank of Canada will decrease the rate in late 2024 or as late as mid-2025. Early this year, the Bank of Canada was originally expected to rewind the rate increase in early 2023.

For 2024, BCREA is currently forecasting a 6.1% year-over-year increase in home sales province-wide, including a 7.1% increase in REBGV and a 3.4% increase in FVREB.

The average home price province-wide in 2024 will once again reach the seven digits, representing a 2.4% year-over-year increase. This includes average home prices of $1.29 million in REBGV, representing a 1.2% year-over-year increase, and $1.08 million in FVREB, representing a 3.8% increase.

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