BC's fall weather forecast is out and La Niña is set to slide in

We might be in the dog days of summer, but we’ve already got our sights on the beautiful BC fall! Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) meteorologist Chris Doyle said they are fairly confident in the probability of a transformative next few months weather-wise, and the forecast might be exactly what you’ve been hoping for.

What can BC’s South Coast expect for the rest of summer and into the fall?

Unlike eastern Canada, the ECCC’s August, September, and October outlook shows temperatures on the cooler end and nearing the “near normal” mark.

First, we have to get through August.

“The summer is typically dry and relatively warm anyway, and that’s kind of the pattern we’re seeing through the end of the summer. Not much in terms of deviation from average precipitation, maybe a little bit of dry side. The temperature should be at or slightly above normal,” Doyle told Daily Hive in a phone call.

But he says that’s going to change as we enter a La Niña. That’s probably going to shift later in September, perhaps early October, and will remain in that weather pattern for the remainder of the winter.

Lalune Eak

“When we look at our seasonal forecast for August, September, and October, issued on the first of this month, we see that, on the balance of probabilities, the models, we’re expecting a slightly warmer than average fall, at least for the first part of the fall…for Southwestern BC, and they always sort of tilted over into more like an average condition. So the seasonal forecasts are sliding into somewhat more agreement with the onset of La Niña,” he said.

That’s great news for skiers and snowboarders.

“La Niña, typically for British Columbia in the fall and especially the winter, means somewhat greater than average precipitation and a little bit cooler. And if you think about that in terms of probabilities, and maybe a little more snow at sea level than when we get in an El Niño year. But you know, that kind of remains to be seen,” he explained.

Skiers in BC have expressed their frustration with the Whistler’s ski conditions. December 20, 2023. (Rise & Alpine/YouTube)

Last year’s ski season can be described simply as bad, so any hope that this year is a rebound has many already looking longingly at the North Shore mountains or Mount Washington.

Doyle does caution against a long-term precipitation forecast, which is challenging to predict, to say the least.

Are you excited about this weather pattern? Let us know in the comments!