What to expect from June's Bank of Canada interest rate update
Canadians are in store for another Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcement this month.
In April, the country’s central bank held its key interest rate at 2.25 per cent for the fourth time since October 2025. The governing council noted that it is closely monitoring the impact of the conflict between the United States and Iran and how the economy is responding to U.S. tariffs and trade policy.
“Both are ongoing sources of uncertainty,” reads the Bank of Canada interest rate update from April. “As expected, so far there is little evidence that oil prices have fed through more broadly to goods and services prices, but this warrants close attention in the months ahead.”
With Canada dipping into a technical recession for the first time since 2020, here’s what experts predict from the next BoC rate announcement on Wednesday, June 10.
Will the Bank of Canada adjust the interest rate?
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Nerdwallet Canada mortgage expert Clay Jarvis says that for the first time in a while, the central bank’s next move isn’t so obvious.
“Under normal circumstances, today’s sagging economy might call for the stimulative jolt of a rate cut. But it’s hard to justify cutting the overnight rate when an aimless war is fuelling inflation,” he explains.
While a technical recession may be a justification for a cut, both Jarvis and Ratehub.ca mortgage expert Penelope Graham don’t think it’ll influence the Bank of Canada to sway from its interest rate hold stance.
“While the latest GDP numbers indicated the economy has contracted over the last two quarters, the headline number masks a mixed performance, and it’s already anticipated that growth will resume in April; the Bank won’t be rushing to ease interest rates while it awaits that result,” says Graham.
However, this doesn’t mean Canadians are fully safe from rate hikes.
“This sluggish growth highlights the challenges the Bank has grappled with over the last year: supporting Canadians who are already struggling with a higher cost of living, and growing inflation pressures due to the war in Iran,” adds Graham.
“The Bank has stated it’s willing to ‘look through’ the impact of spiking oil prices, but this particular headwind hasn’t yet resolved, and the threat of rate hikes will linger as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.”
What the announcement could mean for mortgage rates and housing
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Graham says economic anxiety continues to hold back would-be buyers, despite spring real estate data showing demand returning.
“However, there is a growing narrative that Canada’s housing market may have hit its bottom in terms of affordability, and that mortgage rates are poised to rise,” she explains. “This may incentivize motivated buyers, who have been timing the market, to make their move.”
Here’s how you can stay up to date with the Bank of Canada interest rate updates in 2026.