Toronto Blue Jays' playoff odds have nearly doubled in last few weeks

Don’t look now, but the Toronto Blue Jays are suddenly one of the hottest teams in baseball.

Sure, being 5.5 games back of the American East Division lead and just three games over a .500 record doesn’t sound all that hot, but it’s much better than the Jays were looking in the early dregs of the season.

A week ago, the Jays were coming off being victims of a three-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, capped off by an ugly 13-0 loss in last Sunday’s finale.

But they’re 6-1 in their last two series, including a four-game sweep of their own over the Athletics.

The recent surge has them just 0.5 games back of the final American League Wild Card spot, with their recent swing nearly doubling their playoff odds at the lowest point of the season.

Tracking FanGraphs data shows that the Jays currently have a 43.5 per cent shot at making the playoffs, way up from 22.6 per cent on May 7.

How do Blue Jays’ chances compare to preseason?

Back in spring training, FanGraphs projected Toronto having a 43.4 per cent shot at making the playoffs this year, the 10th highest percentage in the American League. That’s pretty remarkable to be only a 0.1 per cent fluctuation two months into the season, though not all their predictions have been as accurate so far.

The initial FanGraphs projections from before the year expected Toronto and the Baltimore Orioles to be tied with an 83-79 record, two wins shy of the second-place Boston Red Sox and three short of the first-place Yankees.

As it stands right now, the Blue Jays are on pace for 85 wins, while the Yankees are set to vastly overperform and are projected right now at an even 100 wins.

Of course, the Orioles have been arguably the biggest disappointment in baseball, sitting firmly in last place in the division with a 22-36 record. The Red Sox have underperformed preseason expectations as well, currently on pace for just 77 wins instead of their projected 85.

The Rays’ preseason projection of 82 wins has been bang on, as it’s their exact projected total as of Monday afternoon.

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