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FanGraphs projects Toronto Blue Jays to be in AL East dogfight

Adam Laskaris
Adam Laskaris
|
Mar 25 2025, 3:35 pm
FanGraphs projects Toronto Blue Jays to be in AL East dogfight
Nathan Ray Seebeck/Imagn Images

If you’ve spent enough time watching the Toronto Blue Jays over your lifetime, you’ve likely come to learn that they’re a team that loves to get your hopes up.

And with their 2025 season getting underway this week, the Jays just might be on the path for meaningful late-season baseball — which could end up in yet another heartbreak.

FanGraphs’ projected standings are typically one of the tools that savvy baseball fans use to see how predictive numbers expect an average MLB season might play out.

With 14 MLB games set for Thursday as the official kick-off for the season — following a two-game set for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs in Japan earlier this month — it’s a clean slate for pretty much everyone to wipe away the disappointment of past years.

Unfortunately for Blue Jays fans, FanGraphs doesn’t exactly predict things will be straightforward in Toronto this season.

The website projects Toronto and the Baltimore Orioles to be tied with an 83-79 record, two wins shy of the second-place Boston Red Sox.

FanGraphs

And if things play out the way FanGraphs think they will, just four wins between the first-place New York Yankees and last-place Tampa Bay Rays.

The website also projects Toronto having a 43.4 per cent shot at making the playoffs this year, the 10th highest percentage in the American League. As a whole, the 83 wins is a four-way tie for the 10th-best projected overall record in all of Major League Baseball, tied with the Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins, and the Orioles.

The win total would be a nine-game improvement from a 74-win campaign a year ago, but still well off of the three-year average of 90.6 wins the franchise maintained from 2021 to 2023.

Given that this is largely seen as a make-or-break season for several key members of the organization, including pending free agents Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, as well as front office members Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, there’s going to be no shortage of drama throughout the 162-game campaign.

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