Why Steven Stamkos should be Leafs' next big-name target

Sure, just about every Canadian-born superstar of the last century or so has found themselves linked to the Toronto Maple Leafs at one time or another.

Played a minor hockey tournament once in Ontario? You’re a Leaf. Watched one of their games once on Hockey Night in Canada? You’re a Leaf. Played in a charity softball tournament once in the summer at Christie Pits? You’re a Leaf.

But for years where it seemed to be nothing but media and fanbase stirring up headlines for clicks, the Leafs of the past decade have shown that it’s not always just a fantasy.

There’s the biggest free agent signing in team history — Toronto captain John Tavares —  but there has been a now-longstanding trend of veteran star players finding themselves to the Leafs one way or another late in their careers, even if they might be a little past their prime.

Beyond Tavares, there’s Mark Giordano, Ryan O’Reilly, Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Jason Spezza — the list goes on of star talents that eventually made their way over to the Blue and White either in free agency or via trade.

Even slightly lesser names like Wayne Simmonds, Jake Muzzin, TJ Brodie, and Nick Foligno were all top-line players at one point in their career who have made their way onto Toronto’s roster at one point or another in recent seasons.

And it’s not unreasonable to think the Leafs should make a run at Markham’s own Steven Stamkos, a two-time Stanley Cup-winning captain, and a player who had his own media circus in 2016 when he flirted with the shot of joining the Leafs in free agency.

Hey, what’s summer without a little daydreaming?

It was widely reported that Toronto and Tampa Bay were the only two teams Stamkos met with, opting for familiarity over the pressure of joining Toronto.

It’s hard to blame Stamkos for his decision, given Tampa Bay’s success over the last decade.

But while it might seem like Stamkos could be a member of the Lightning for life — he’s played his whole career there since being drafted first overall in 2008 — enough sports over the years have shown us that nothing is guaranteed.

If Stamkos wanted to come to Toronto, there’s no real reason why he couldn’t.

Stamkos, a longtime pal of Tavares, has just one year remaining on his contract worth $8.5 million next season.

Here's #Leafs captain John Tavares talking about his competitive relationship with Steven Stamkos over the last three decades.

"He just said congrats and just to keep going… lotta memories together, and a lot of battles over the years, not just in the NHL but as kids." https://t.co/lca5b4NasQ pic.twitter.com/xcWcXyI6Ds

— Adam Laskaris (@adam_la2karis) April 30, 2023

And either by way of a trade or simply waiting for him to hit the free agency market, Toronto’s front office should make a push to finally bring Stamkos to their roster, seven (or eight, if it happens next year) years after he was initially linked to them.

A player like Stamkos, barring a health scare, will still garner a big contract wherever he plays in the 2024-25 campaign, even if he waits until next year to make his free agency decision. It’s a little under 12 months before Toronto could sign him for free, but we’ve seen time and time again that’s more than enough time to start hearing some rumours leak about players’ next destinations.

Coming off a 34-goal, 50-assist, 84-point season where he played 81 games, it’s clear the 33-year-old hasn’t exactly hit a wall when it comes to his NHL level.

But despite his own individual brilliance, Stamkos’ Lightning fell a step behind the Leafs this past season, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. Tampa Bay finished with 98 points to Toronto’s 111 in the regular season, before falling to them in the first round of the playoffs.

One year doesn’t exactly signal a shift in fortunes for the Atlantic Division, with Tampa Bay advancing to three consecutive Stanley Cup Finals — winning two — from 2020 through 2022.

But nothing lasts forever, and perhaps Stamkos could be intrigued by the opportunity to see things on the other side of his divisional rival.

After all, Tampa Bay’s core is starting to dwindle away a little, even if many of the key pieces remain.

Stamkos’ key running mate Nikita Kucherov is fresh off a 113-point campaign, while star goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy will be just 29 when the season kicks off this fall.

But 31-year-old Victor Hedman finished 15th in Norris Trophy voting this past year, after finishing in the top three six years in a row. Alex Killorn, 33, left for the Anaheim Ducks in free agency, while Patrick Maroon and Corey Perry — two of the team’s instigators — ended up in Minnesota via trade and Chicago via a one-year contract.

Tampa isn’t going away as a competitive force in the NHL anytime soon, but all dynasties have to come to an end at some point.

And Toronto making a serious push for Stamkos could help them both take away one of their rival’s key pieces while also bolstering their own offensive firepower. There’s a scenario where Toronto makes a push for a yet-to-be-signed Stamkos midseason, offering a series of picks and prospects for the vet forward. With a full no-move clause, Stamkos could effectively dictate his destination, should he have any interest in joining Toronto.

But more likely, Toronto could try to add him next summer, which they’d have all the tools to do, despite a perceived “cap hell” often described towards their team.

Per CapFriendly, Toronto currently just has $47.6 million on the books for their salary cap next season. Of course, they’ll be looking to extend Auston Matthews and William Nylander long-term, which would eat upwards of $20 million of their remaining cap space up.

There are some players that just always give you the “what-if?” factor, and Stamkos will perpetually remain one of those players unless he ever does make the move to Toronto.

It’d be a legacy play for Stamkos if he did sign (or come via a trade), and perhaps the final gamble for the Leafs to supplement their own “core four” with a fifth offensive star. After winning two Stanley Cups and putting up a Hall of Fame-level legacy in Tampa Bay, wouldn’t it be one heck of a storybook ending to his career to try to do something similar in Toronto?

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