Raptors hold greater than 1-in-4 chance of landing top-3 pick in 2024 NBA Draft

The Toronto Raptors are a month and a day from finding out where their top draft selection will land this season.

With the team’s regular season wrapping up this weekend, Toronto’s 2023-24 campaign was largely one to forget.

But the team’s patience — and well, extended stretches of losing — could actually pay dividends in the upcoming May 12 draft lottery.

According to the latest projections from Tankathon, the Raptors hold a 9% chance of winning the top overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft and a 27.4% shot at landing a top-three selection.

Toronto’s pick is set to go to San Antonio this year as part of the Jakob Poeltl trade executed in February 2023, but it is top-six protected, meaning it’s contingent on the upcoming draft lottery results. Toronto currently sits 25th out of 30 NBA teams, or sixth-best when it comes to the upcoming draft lottery odds.

Detroit and Washington each hold a 14% chance at the first overall pick, while San Antonio has a 13.3% shot, Charlotte has a 13.2% shot, and the Portland Trail Blazers have a 10.5% chance to round out the top five.

Outside of their 9% chance at the first overall pick, Toronto has a 9.2% chance at the second pick, 9.4% at third, 9.6% at fourth, and 8.6% chance at drafting fifth. As it stands, they can’t draft fifth, and any lottery result that has them drafting seventh or lower would see their pick head to the Spurs.

As the standings shake out, Toronto has a 45.6 % chance of keeping the pick and, conversely, a 54.4% chance of transferring it to the Spurs.

The Raptors close out their regular season this Friday and Sunday with a two-game set in Miami against the Heat.

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