5 things that would have to go right for Raptors to make the playoffs this year
The Toronto Raptors aren’t exactly expected by many to be a contending team this season.
Oddsmakers currently have Toronto’s season-long win over-under at just 36.5, a sign they’re much more likely to finish in the bottom half of the conference than be a force at the top of it.
With six teams per conference getting a guaranteed playoff spot and four teams making the NBA’s play-in tournament, the mark was 41 wins last season in the East — and 42 in the West — in order to be one of the teams with a shot at the postseason.
But if there’s anything the Raptors have been known for doing over the last decade or so, it’s finding a way to surprise the doubters.
Sure, it hasn’t always come to fruition — and last season is a good reminder of that — but weirder things have happened in the NBA than “middling team returns to the playoffs.”
If Toronto is going to make that jump, though, they’ll need quite a few things to go right for them. Here’s five things that must happen if the Raptors have any hope of contending for a playoff spot this year.
1. Rajaković gels with his guys
Toronto made a major change at the head of their coaching staff following last season, replacing Nick Nurse after five years with first-time head coach Darko Rajaković.
And on paper, a coaching change can obviously have its benefits — but what does that actually look like for the franchise?
For Toronto, one of the top priorities has to be finding the right mix of their bench unit, as the team struggled over the last two seasons mightily to have real contributors outside of their starting five, with their 28.4 points per game ranking 29th in the league.
Offensively, Rajakovic needs to find a way to re-invigorate Toronto’s half-court offence, which had fallen stale at times, largely due to a .335 three-point percentage that sat 28th in the league.
If Toronto has any hope of improvement this season, they’ll need Rajakovic to put his stamp on the roster from day one.
2. Raptors’ front office buys in
For Toronto to make the playoffs this year, they’ll need just about everyone firing on all cylinders. And that starts at the top, with Toronto’s front office needing to figure out what direction they’re interested in taking the franchise. A full tank doesn’t seem like it’s on the horizon for the team, but there are questions to be asked about where exactly the Raptors are headed.
The front office was widely criticized for buying rather than selling at last year’s trade deadline before ultimately losing Fred VanVleet in free agency to Houston.
With Pascal Siakam’s contract expiring this year and OG Anunoby having a player option for 2024-25, Toronto’s front office will be soon forced to pick a direction or risk having more players leave in the long term.
3. Scottie Barnes takes “the leap” for the Raptors
Heading into the third year of his NBA career, the time is about now for Scottie Barnes to establish himself as one of the league’s top talents.
Having won the league’s Rookie of the Year in 2021-22, the dynamic forward still feels like he has more to give on both ends of the floor, particularly from an offensive creation and scoring standpoint.
If Barnes is able to increase his impact on the game, he raises the ceiling of what this team can accomplish.
It might be a lot of pressure for a 22-year-old, but that’s the kind of expectations you typically get as a top-five pick in the NBA Draft.
4. Dennis Schröder finds the right mix as a starter
If parting ways with Nick Nurse was a franchise-shifting moment, VanVleet ultimately departing for the Houston Rockets might just as well have been a full culture reset.
With VanVleet being the team’s on and off-court leader since the departure of Kyle Lowry, new point guard Dennis Schröder has some big shoes to fill as he’s expected to be starting for Toronto this season.
Having already played for five NBA franchises — and fresh off an MVP performance at the FIBA World Cup — Schröder comes into the Raptors with plenty of work experience to draw back on.
But as much experience as he’s had in the league, he’s only found himself as his team’s starter in 15 of his 68 playoff games throughout his career. For Toronto to elevate themselves to a playoff contender, they’ll need a Schröder-run offence to hit all the right notes.
5. Someone else in the East falls apart
It might sound weird in theory, but Toronto needs to be praying on someone else’s downfall should they want to make this year’s playoffs. And on cue, nearly every season, a team with massive preseason hype seems to flame out either early or midway through their campaign.
Whether it’s a disgruntled star, a coach not having the right mix or the injury bug causing some struggles, there’s almost always a team or two in the Eastern Conference that suddenly becomes a train wreck.
At the end of the day, there are only 15 teams in the conference gunning for eight playoff spots, and any team that’s having a tough year is another chance for Toronto to return to the postseason.
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