Why now is the time for the Leafs to give Petr Mrazek more starts

Goaltender Petr Mrazek hasn’t played much for the Toronto Maple Leafs this season.

In his first go-around with the Leafs since signing a three-year contract this summer, Mrazek has made six starts halfway through the year: two in October, one in December, and three in January.

Mrazek dealt with a series of lower-body injuries in October and November that kept him out of the lineup for the better part of three months.

It’s not like anyone has taken his job away from him. Joseph Woll has made four starts this season, while Michael Hutchinson made one. But other than that, it’s been the Jack Campbell show.

Campbell has gotten 31 of 42 possible starts so far. This is a pretty stark departure from what the nine-year NHL vet in Mrazek is used to, and probably not how many people drew it up when gauging how the Leafs would run out their goalies this year.

From 2015-16 to 2019-20, Mrazek put up an average of 40.8 starts per year, just about exactly half of his team’s games. Last year, Mrazek again dealt with injuries, limiting to just 12 games in his final year with the Carolina Hurricanes.

In the win column, Mrazek’s done the job in Toronto, picking up five wins in seven appearances.

“You have to be prepared, you have to be ready, you have to always come to the rink,” Mrazek said on Monday following his relief appearance for Campbell in an eventual 6-4 win over the New Jersey Devils.

In terms of actually stopping the puck, Mrazek’s results have been more muted. When it comes to saving percentage, his .902 mark sits 46th amongst NHL goalies this season with at least five games played.

With an average NHL save percentage coming in at .909 this season (per Hockey-Reference), it doesn’t take much to realize that there’s plenty of room for Leafs’ backup to improve.

But with the Leafs entering the All-Star break this weekend before 11 games over the remainder of February, now is the time to see what a healthy Mrazek can do and offer him a larger share of the Leafs’ starts with a more consistent schedule.

Mrazek hasn’t even faced 200 shots against as a Leaf to date. It seems a little silly to focus on his “floor” or his “ceiling” as a goaltender when the sample sizes of his performances as a Leaf are comprised of less than 10% of the entire season.

Campbell’s .925 save percentage over the course of the season holds up amongst the NHL’s best.

But since December 1, Campbell’s save percentage has dipped to .898. Due to the Leafs’ strong offensive performances, he’s still put up a 9-2-2 record over that stretch. On many nights, they’ve been winning in spite of his play rather than because of it.

Just like Mrazek, mediocre goaltending from Campbell hasn’t sunk the Leafs. They’ve held their own, holding the league’s fourth-best points percentage at .726. They’ve won five games in a row.

Compared to most teams, their problems are pretty minor. But that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be looking for ways to improve.

If he’s healthy, it’s Campbell who is the consensus starter for the Leafs come playoff time.

But why not dole out the starts a little before then? Even though he’s had strong nights such as last night’s 7-1 win over New Jersey, it’s clear that Campbell has been struggling a little over the past two months. With 32 appearances, Campbell’s officially now played in more games than he ever has in an NHL season, topping his total of 31 in 2018-19.

Like most coaches, Sheldon Keefe is notoriously guarded when it comes to questions about goaltending share. For now, perhaps for the first time all season, he’s got a chance to try something a little different.

The Leafs offered Mrazek a multi-year deal because they believed in his ability to succeed.

For Mrazek, for Campbell, and the long-term health of the entire Leafs’ roster, it couldn’t hurt to back that belief up and give Petr Mrazek a bigger slice of the goaltending pie.