What Leafs' recent playoff matchups would've looked like under old format

If you’ve spent any time arguing hockey over the past decade, you’ll know there’s an age-old complaint about how the NHL’s playoff format has screwed the Toronto Maple Leafs over.

Under the current wild-card format that was introduced in the 2013-14 season, Toronto has made the playoffs in six consecutive seasons, including the expanded 2020 COVID-19 NHL “bubble” postseason.

Each of the NHL’s four divisions sends three teams at minimum to the postseason, with the remaining two spots in each conference given to two wild card teams, creating a divisional bracket rather than the old 1-8 format where the top eight teams in each conference made the postseason and were re-ranked after each playoff round.

(A note: The NHL’s old format from 1999-2013 included three division winners locked into the top three spots in each conference, regardless of whether there were additional teams that ranked higher in the overall standings. However, that also existed in a six-division NHL, whereas there are just four under the current league alignment.)

Since 2016-17, only three teams in the NHL have had a better record than Toronto over that time frame: the Washington Capitals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, and the Boston Bruins.

But as you probably know, Toronto is set up with an 0-6 record in their postseason appearances under the new format and has run into the NHL’s gauntlet in the first round more often than not.

Toronto’s luck has seen them play Boston twice, Washington once, and a likely matchup against Tampa Bay later this year after facing off against them last season.

Outside of 2020, where they faced the Columbus Blue Jackets, and 2021, where they were shocked by the Montreal Canadiens, Toronto has come into the series as always, facing off another top team right off the bat.

What if things were different? Some fans might argue that the Leafs are so cursed, a first loss is guaranteed no matter who they match up against.

But for the sake of a thought experiment, here’s what the Leafs’ first-round matchups since 2017 would’ve looked like if the 1-8 playoff format had never left us:

2017:

Old series: Washington Capitals (1 MET) vs Toronto Maple Leafs (WC2)

If you ask any Leafs fan what their favourite playoff series over the past two decades was, the chances are pretty likely it was this one.

In the rookie seasons of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, the Leafs took the Presidents’ Trophy winners to six games and even won a pair of overtime contests by the way of goals from Tyler Bozak and Kasperi Kapanen. There are few feel-good losses in the NHL playoffs, but Toronto appeared to be just around the corner from going on a deep playoff run after a strong showing with a young team.

New series: Same matchup

With Toronto just squeaking into the playoffs this year, the format would’ve been the same under the 1-8 format.

2018

Old series: Boston Bruins (ATL 2) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (ATL 3)

When Leafs fans first found out they were playing Boston in the 2018 playoffs, just about everyone got flashbacks to the infamous 2013 third-period collapse where Toronto fell 5-4 in overtime to the Bruins in Game 7 after leading 4-1 midway through the final frame of regulation.

In 2018, once again, Toronto had the lead in the third period, entering the final frame up 4-3. But four goals by the Bruins, including two from Jake DeBrusk, gave Boston a 7-4 victory and Toronto a heck of a lot of heartbreak.

New series: Toronto Maple Leafs (4) vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (5)

Toronto and Pittsburgh have met three times before in the playoffs, but not since 1999, a second-round series in which Toronto won four games to two.

The 2017-18 Pittsburgh Penguins were coming into the postseason looking to “threepeat,” having won the Stanley Cup in both 2016 and 2017.

Pittsburgh’s hopes were dashed by the Washington Capitals in an epic second-round series between rivals Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin, with the latter eventually going on to win his first-ever Stanley Cup.

2019

Old series: Boston Bruins (ATL 2) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (ATL 3)

For the third time in six years, this series featured Game 7 heartbreak for Toronto. This one was a little different, as the Leafs fell 5-1 in the decisive game taking place at Boston’s TD Garden.

Boston went on to the Stanley Cup Finals that season for the third time in a decade but fell in a Game 7 of their own, losing on home ice to first-time champions in the St. Louis Blues.

New series: Toronto Maple Leafs (4) vs. New York Islanders (5)

What a matchup this would’ve been. Toronto had just signed former New York captain John Tavares on a seven-year deal the previous summer, with the Islanders finishing fourth and the Leafs finishing fifth in the Eastern Conference.

The Tavares-less Islanders ended up sweeping the Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round that season before being swept out of the playoffs themselves by the Carolina Hurricanes.

2020

Old series: Toronto Maple Leafs (8) vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (9)

Toronto stumbled their way through the 2019-20 season, most notable for both its stoppage due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the appointment of Sheldon Keefe as the team’s new head coach as a replacement for Mike Babcock.

With the NHL opting for a 24-team postseason, surely this would be the year Toronto could shake their playoff demons. But in a best-of-five matchup that saw all five games played at Scotiabank Arena in the COVID-19 Eastern Conference bubble, Toronto fell 3-0 in a decisive Game 5 to suffer yet another playoff stinker.

New series: Boston Bruins (1) vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (8)

Hey, maybe this playoff format wouldn’t always be doing them any favours. Boston finished first in the Eastern Conference for the season, while Toronto’s regular season record was its weakest since drafting Matthews first overall in 2016. Boston fell in the second round to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who eventually won their first of two consecutive Stanley Cups.

2021:

Old series: Toronto Maple Leafs (NOR 1) vs. Montreal Canadiens (NOR 4)

The 2021 season should have been one of the greatest seasons in Leafs history. In the regular season, Toronto walked through the all-Canadian North Division, the team’s first division title win since 2000. Surely this was the year to go on a run, especially when matched up against a Canadiens team that barely squeaked into the postseason?

Well, not quite. Toronto blew a 3-1 series lead to Montreal, who went on a shock run to the Stanley Cup Final that same year.

New series: Toronto Maple Leafs (4) vs. Washington Capitals (5)

The 2021 campaign might’ve been the NHL’s strangest regular season ever, with each of its four divisions only playing amongst themselves through the 56-game regular season and the first two rounds of the playoffs. But if the Eastern Conference exited in its traditional format, Toronto would’ve hosted Washington in the first round.

Washington themselves played the Boston Bruins, falling 4-1 in the first round of the playoffs.

2022

Old series: Toronto Maple Leafs (ATL 2) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (ATL 3)

For the first time since 2004, the Leafs were the home team for Game 1 of the playoffs with a full building of fans. It was everything you’d expect from a Toronto-Tampa series: chippy, high-scoring, and entertaining to watch. Again, though, the Leafs lost a winner-take-all game 7 in Toronto for the third consecutive year, with the Lightning making it to the Stanley Cup Final before losing to the Colorado Avalanche.

New series: Toronto Maple Leafs (3) vs. Boston Bruins (6)

You know, maybe the Leafs really are cursed.

2023

Current series projection: Toronto Maple Leafs (ATL 2) vs. Tampa Bay (ATL 3)

Barring a catastrophe, Toronto and Tampa Bay are set up for a rematch of last year’s playoff series.

Toronto is 15 points off of first-place Boston, while Tampa Bay sits nine points up (with five fewer games played) than the fourth-place Florida Panthers.

New series: Toronto (3) vs. New York Rangers (6)

The Leafs and the Rangers both feature high-powered offences, sitting sixth and 10th in goals for league-wide. But despite both being Original Six franchises, the teams actually haven’t faced off in the playoffs against each other since 1971.

There’s no real use in looking back at what could’ve been for the Leafs in the format the NHL seems resistant to change. But at the very least, it’s something to argue about the next time you’re around the rink.

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