Leafs top Canadian Stanley Cup favourite again, according to analytics site
The Toronto Maple Leafs may have gotten off to a slow start to the season, but they’re once again projected to be the top team in Canada.
According to popular hockey analytics site MoneyPuck.com, Toronto has the best odds in the country of finally ending the nation’s 30-year Stanley Cup drought. With a 6.8% chance to win Lord Stanley’s mug, Toronto is sitting fifth place in the league behind Colorado, Boston, Los Angeles, and Dallas.
While it might not be surprising to see a perennially competitive team like Toronto ranked highly in a model like MoneyPuck’s, it’s been a bit of a bumpy ride for them this season.
At the start of the month, Toronto wasn’t even in the top 10 for chances to win the Cup, with the red-hot Vancouver Canucks leading the league with an 8.9% chance to win it all.
Fortunes have flipped, however, with Vancouver now having just a 1.8% chance to win it all this season, third in Canada behind the Edmonton Oilers (2.2%) and just ahead of Calgary (1.7%).
MoneyPuck.com
At 10-5-2, the Leafs currently sit fourth in the Atlantic Division, though they sit just a point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning, who have played three more games.
Now, you might be looking at the NHL standings and wondering how exactly these numbers are calculated: after all, Vancouver sits fourth across the NHL with 27 points, well ahead of Toronto (22) and Edmonton (just 11), but doesn’t quite have the same respect when it comes to winning the Cup.
But the model takes into account various factors, including the likely regression towards a more expected outcome on both ends from Edmonton and Vancouver. Vancouver’s odds at making the playoffs still are about double Edmonton’s (66.6 to 37.6), but the model figures Edmonton would have a better shot at winning it all should they be able to turn their season around and qualify for the playoffs.
The Leafs’ next game is Friday when they visit the Chicago Blackhawks for a 2 pm ET puck drop to coincide with the day after American Thanksgiving.
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