Home prices are set to plunge across much of Ontario this fall

Experts predict home prices will decline across much of the country, including Ontario, this fall, as Canada faces sky-high interest rates coupled with a demand for homes far outpacing supply.

RE/MAX Canada has released its 2023 Fall Housing Market Outlook Report, which forecasts that several Ontario real estate markets will experience declines in home prices this fall, part of a broader nationwide softening of the housing landscape.

“If the fall market is an early indicator for 2024 activity, we may see a very active first quarter as buyers and sellers take advantage of easing prices into the earlier part of next year,” says Christopher Alexander, president of RE/MAX Canada.

The report notes Ontario as “a diverse mix of average residential sale price estimates heading into the fall,” that includes seven major markets predicted to witness declines in home prices.

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Home prices are expected to decrease this fall in Hamilton (-2%), Ottawa (-2%), Windsor (-2%), North Bay (-2.5%), Kitchener-Waterloo (-4%), Durham Region (-5%), and Peterborough (-5%).

As other regions of Ontario suffered amid rising borrowing costs, markets like Hamilton actually benefited from interest rate hikes.

“While we wait for governments to implement a tangible national housing strategy to boost Canada’s supply of both affordable and diverse housing, the market is starting to ease in some regions,” said Alexander. “This is bringing some much-needed relief from the sky-high prices we’ve experienced over the past couple of years.”

On the other end of the spectrum, home prices are expected to spike in hot Ontario markets like Burlington (1%), Lakelands West (2%, York Region (2.2%), the Greater Toronto Area (2.5%), and Sudbury (5%).

Over half of Ontario regions — at 53% — are expected to be seller’s markets this fall with demand outpacing supply, while 40% are anticipated to be balanced, and the remaining 7% are forecast to be buyer’s markets where supply exceeds demand.

Experts say regions like the GTA will continue to face short- and long-term challenges, citing interest rates as “likely to be the most pressing factor influencing the market.”