Canada's population is 300,000 higher than previously thought: statistics | Daily Hive

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Canada has about 300,000 more residents than previously estimated, with revised figures overturning earlier indications that the country’s population was shrinking, according to a new analysis by Vancouver-based credit union Central 1.

The revised picture shows continued, modest growth, although the financial institution warns that slow population gains will still weigh on consumer spending, housing demand, and the economy.

In an analysis in late September 2026, Central 1 chief economist Bryan Yu examined Statistics Canada’s updated population estimates, which put Canada’s population at nearly 41.8 million as of July 2026.

The country gained over 80,300 residents during the second quarter of 2026, representing an increase of 0.2 per cent. Compared to the previous year, the population grew by about 189,400 people or 0.5 per cent.

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British Columbia remained the province with the weakest annual population growth. Its population reached approximately 5.71 million in July 2026, up by just 8,053 people or 0.1 per cent from a year earlier. The province gained 6,914 residents between April and July 2026, following a loss of 2,649 during the first three months of this year.

The national revisions substantially change the picture presented by earlier estimates, which had shown two consecutive quarters of year-over-year population declines.

For April 2026, the previous estimate suggested Canada’s population had dropped by 0.5 per cent over the previous year. The updated figures instead show a modest increase of 0.5 per cent — a reversal of one full per cent. That change stems from revised estimates of how many temporary residents remain in Canada, including international students and temporary workers. The adjustments reach back to July 2021.

Statistics Canada incorporated new Canada Border Services Agency data to estimate departures before permits expire, while also adjusting for people with extension applications still being processed. Earlier estimates of departures had relied on permit expiry dates.

The result is a much smaller estimated decline in the temporary resident population. For the 18 months ending in April 2026, that group had previously been estimated to have shrunk by about 590,500 people. But now, the revised decline is approximately 185,000.

Temporary resident numbers continued to fall in the second quarter of 2026, dropping by nearly 18,900 people or 0.7 per cent. However, that decrease was smaller than in either of the previous two quarters. Study permit numbers fell while work permit numbers increased.

Permanent immigration continued to support overall population growth. Approximately 99,200 people became permanent residents in the second quarter of 2026, which is 4.2 per cent lower than a year earlier but more than in the first quarter.

Over the four quarters ending in June 2026, permanent immigration totalled approximately 368,200 people. That figure includes both newcomers and people already living in Canada who moved from temporary to permanent status.

The revisions also changed the provincial picture. Earlier estimates had shown annual population declines in seven of the 10 provinces. The updated figures show every province had a larger population than a year earlier in April and July 2026.

B.C. and Ontario saw particularly large revisions, reflecting their relatively high shares of temporary residents. Even with those changes, Ontario’s annual population growth was only 0.3 per cent as of July 2026.

Alberta led the provinces with annual growth of 1.5 per cent, adding about 76,400 residents to reach approximately 5.1 million. Saskatchewan and New Brunswick followed, each growing by about one per cent.

Relocation between provinces also helped Western Canada’s overall population growth. Alberta gained a net 5,893 residents from other provinces during the second quarter of 2026, which is linked to its comparatively stronger economy and housing affordability. B.C. also gained more residents from other provinces than it lost to them.

The revised temporary resident estimates have implications for the federal government’s immigration policy.

Temporary residents represented 6.6 per cent of Canada’s population as of July 2026, down slightly from a revised 6.7 per cent in April 2026. Before the revisions, April 2026’s share had been estimated at 6.1 per cent. That leaves the federal government’s established updated goal of reducing the temporary resident share to five per cent further away than earlier figures suggested.

It is emphasized that many people who come to Canada temporarily establish careers and personal ties, then seek ways to remain in the country.

Central 1 argues for a need to create greater flexibility in federal policy, warning that additional restrictions would further weaken rental housing markets and economic activity. Without policy changes, many temporary residents will likely leave the country, as their options for remaining become more challenging.

The larger population estimates also change how recent economic performance should be interpreted.

Some of the strength in total consumer spending may reflect a larger number of people living in Canada. A higher population also reduces the apparent improvement in economic output per person.

The revisions could push reported unemployment rates higher as updated population estimates are incorporated into labour market statistics. Both the number of employed people and the size of the labour force would likely rise, but Central 1 anticipates some upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

In a separate economic analysis released in late September 2026, Central 1 forecast a weaker second half of 2026 after Canada’s economy made virtually no progress in July. Gross domestic product was essentially unchanged that month following a 0.4 per cent increase in June 2026. Compared with a year earlier, output was up by 1.4 per cent, down from June 2026’s annual growth rate of 2.1 per cent.

The economic results varied considerably across industries. Construction output notably went up by 1.3 per cent, led by non-residential projects.

Higher bond yields going through mortgage rates are another factor that Central 1 expects to slow any improvement in the housing market.

Central 1 expects the Bank of Canada to hold its policy interest rate steady into 2027. It notes that the weaker growth outlook reduces the urgency for a rate increase, although high and unpredictable oil prices remain a major inflation risk.

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