Are the Blue Jays better or worse than they were last year?

If there was one phrase to describe the Toronto Blue Jays’ journey this year, it would be “roller coaster.”

One week ago, they were in danger of slipping out of the playoff picture to the Baltimore Orioles. This week, they sit comfortably in a postseason position.

The ebbs and flows have been high and low for the Blue Jays this year. They rode those thrilling early season one-run victories, they saw their manager fired, they went into multiple losing slumps and yet, they’re back on their feet once again.

It’s not unlike what happened to the 2021 Blue Jays, although the overarching narrative about that team was that they played in three home ballparks in one season. This year’s team doesn’t have that same excuse.

If you asked a casual observer: “Are the Blue Jays better, worse or the same this year?” the results might surprise you. Despite spending $157 million in the free agent pool and over $146 million to re-sign players this past offseason, you’d think they’d be miles better in 2022 than 2021.

Although their record is slightly better at the 120 game junction this year, it’s not off by much. The 2021 Blue Jays had a 63-57 record at 120 games, and this year they’re 65-55. Yet, because of the ultra-competitive AL East last year, the Jays were 5.5 games out of a playoff spot.

A Blue Jays standings snapshot through 120 games year-over-year.

Last season: 63-57, 5.5 games out of a playoff spot.
This season: 65-55, 2.5 games up on a playoff spot. pic.twitter.com/8L7uGM7Gzw

— Ian Hunter (@BlueJayHunter) August 23, 2022

This year, that slightly improved overall record thrust them into one of the American League Wild Card spots. The addition of the extra playoff spot this go-around gives them a bit of a cushion, but ultimately, the 2021 and 2022 Blue Jays played equally to this mark.

In 2021, the Blue Jays had one of the most potent lineups in baseball. They led MLB in home runs, slugging percentage, and OPS. Led by breakout performances from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, and Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto had no shortage of mashers in their batting order.

This year has been a different story, as Vladdy is putting forth a solid effort, but his numbers pale compared to his 2021 MVP-calibre production. Bichette’s been a league-average hitter, and Hernandez spent almost a month on the injured list.

Despite that, unsung heroes like Alejandro Kirk, Matt Chapman, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. picked up the slack this year. The Blue Jays don’t have one top 10 MVP candidate, but as Nick Ashbourne of Sportsnet noted, Toronto boasts seven two-plus WAR hitters in their lineup.

Both lineups are basically even-keeled through their first 120 games of the season. A few tenths of slugging here, a few tenths of OPS there, but the 2021 and 2022 Blue Jays are neck and neck for offensive output.

And how about the pitching? On paper, the Blue Jays had one of the best starting rotations in the American League heading into the 2022 campaign. They signed free agent Kevin Gausman, re-signed Jose Berrios, and had a solid starting five heading into Opening Day.

In 2021, it felt like a constant scramble to find out which starting pitcher might get the ball on Game Day. Robbie Ray and Steven Matz were pleasant surprises, and Manoah’s arrival provided an adrenaline shot to the rotation.

The Blue Jays’ bullpen was a tire fire for a six-week stretch in May and June last year, costing the team several games. By comparison, the 2022 iteration of Toronto’s bullpen has stabilized as relievers have settled into their roles.

Again, both pitching staffs have nearly identical numbers through 120 games. Last year’s Blue Jays had a little more strikeout power, but aside from that, the numbers are very close in the pitching department.

Even with these statistics, why does it seem like last year’s Blue Jays team was far superior? For one, Guerrero posted ungodly numbers deserving of an MVP award. Bichette led the AL in hits, Semien had one of the best offensive seasons by a second baseman ever, and Hernandez clubbed 32 home runs.

Aside from those contributions, Toronto’s lineup was very top-heavy last year. George Springer only played in 78 games, and after the cleanup spot, the Blue Jays’ batting order fell off a cliff. This year’s squad is much more balanced one through nine.

They still lack some impact left-handed hitters, but there are solid contributors up and down the lineup in 2022. The Blue Jays mad rush to the finish also helped solidify their reputation as an offensive juggernaut, despite missing out on the playoffs by a single game.

With the benefit of the additional playoff spot this year, even though the Blue Jays are statistically the same on both sides of the ball compared to last year, the odds are in their favour in 2022.