Hospitalizations may have peaked in Washington: UW analysis

Apr 7 2020, 11:37 am

The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) revealed in a revised publication that social distancing seems to be effective, as there’s a lesser need for hospital beds and respirators than initially estimated.

“As we obtain more data and more precise data, the forecasts we at IHME created have become more accurate,” said Dr. Christopher Murray said, director of the IHME.

The projections also displayed that Washington saw its peak resource use five days ago, when an estimated 157 invasive ventilators and 972 hospital beds were used.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

The projections of need for ventilators and ICU beds have been revised downward because of the larger datasets on US practice patterns for the caring of coronavirus patients. The estimated demand is influenced by the surviving patients’ longer length of stay, the shortened length of stay for those not requiring ICU services, and lesser triage practices in over-stretched hospital systems.

Nationwide, IHME is projecting around 81,766 deaths by early August, down from a previous projection of 93,500. They are also estimating that the US is only nine days away from its projected peak of daily deaths on April 16, where 3,130 deaths are estimated nationwide.

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation