What analytics project each Edmonton Oilers free agent will get on next contract
The Edmonton Oilers are bound to have some player turnover this summer, but who will the team opt to let go?
Free agency will be a pivotal part of the Oilers’ offseason plans, and they will need to make several decisions on which players will be brought back on extensions. As it stands, Edmonton has eight players who are set to become UFAs on July 1, and it’s unlikely that all of them will return.
However, it’s also unlikely that none of them will return. So, what will go into GM Stan Bowman’s decision on who to keep and who to let go? A lot of it will likely boil down to what those players will be demanding on their next contracts.
There is no way to know what those demands are until each player signs on the dotted line, but it is possible to use analytics to project their next contracts. AFP Analytics has built a model that does just this, using advanced analytics to make contract projections.
The site just recently launched its 2026 free agent projections, and nearly all the Oilers UFAs are included. The only player left off from AFP’s list is Kasperi Kapanen, whose 41 games this year were deemed to have insufficient data for a proper projection.
Otherwise, here is what AFP Analytics’ model had to say about the remainder of Edmonton’s pending UFAs…
Adam Henrique
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Imagn Images
Age: 36
Current contract: Two years, $3 million cap hit
AFP projection: One year, $2.3 million cap hit
Adam Henrique is coming off the worst season of his career, and it doesn’t seem likely that he will be back with the Oilers.
His $3 million cap hit hindered Edmonton at the deadline, and AFP is projecting that his next deal will come in around $2.3 million. That would be a $700,000 pay cut, but even that seems a bit too pricey for the Oilers.
Connor Ingram
Perry Nelson/Imagn Images
Age: 29
Current contract: Three years, $1.95 million cap hit
AFP projection: Two years, $2.9 million cap hit
The Oilers will need to address their goaltending this summer, but will they bring back Connor Ingram?
Ingram didn’t cost much for Edmonton this year due to the Utah Mammoths retaining salary when they traded him to the Oilers back in October. However, his play this year was good enough that AFP thinks he’s due for a $1 million raise.
He could be one of the cheaper options on the market if Edmonton strikes out elsewhere.
Jason Dickinson
Jerome Miron/Imagn Images
Age: 30
Current contract: Two years, $4.25 million cap hit
AFP projection: Two years, $3.1 million cap hit
Edmonton will need to figure out its third-line centre, and Jason Dickinson could be the answer.
Dickinson wound up being more impactful on the offensive side of the puck than initially thought for the Oilers, but his real value is in his defensive play. He is projected to take a little bit of a pay cut on his next deal, which could be enticing to Edmonton if true.
Connor Murphy
Perry Nelson/Imagn Images
Age: 33
Current contract: Four years, $4.4 million cap hit
AFP projection: Two years, $3.6 million cap hit
Connor Murphy fit like a glove on the Oilers’ blueline, so why not bring him back for another season?
At 33 years old, Murphy’s prime years are behind him, but he is still a very serviceable top-six defenceman. A two-year deal seems fair for his age, and AFP has his cap hit coming in slightly lower than his previous deal.
Jack Roslovic
Stephen Brashear/Imagn Images
Age: 29
Current contract: One year, $1.5 million cap hit
AFP projection: Four years, $4.4 million cap hit
There isn’t a lot of 20-goal scorers hitting the free agent market this summer, but Jack Roslovic is one of them.
He was one of Edmonton’s most important secondary scorers last season, but he was prone to going on cold streaks, playoffs included. Still, he is projected to get a major raise from last year’s bargain deal with the Oilers.
Curtis Lazar
Age: 31
Current contract: One year, $775,000 cap hit
AFP projection: One year, $850,000 cap hit
There wasn’t a lot to dislike about Curtis Lazar’s first season with the Oilers.
He was expected to be a bottom-of-the-lineup player who could help eat up minutes, and Lazar delivered on those expectations. He did nothing to help or hurt his stock on the open market.
Lazar got the NHL minimum salary last season and is projected to do so next season as well.
Max Jones
Perry Nelson/Imagn Images
Age: 28
Current contract: Two years, $1 million cap hit
AFP projection: One year, $850,000 cap hit
Max Jones started to catch fire late into the season, but injuries caused him to miss the playoffs.
There is no question that the Oilers like what he brought to the fourth line, and he has shown flashes of his talent. Still, it wasn’t enough to justify a raise on his current deal. He is projected to be another minimum-salary player alongside Lazar.