There will be an uptick in Edmonton’s housing market in 2020, before the market enters a moderation state in 2021.
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According to the newly released housing outlook by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), housing starts will grow moderately next year from the slowly recovering job market and population growth.
But there will be a slowdown in 2021, prompted by an elevation in complete and unabsorbed inventory, accounting for about half of the inventory in Alberta.
Most of Edmonton’s inventory is in single-detached properties, and as of August 2019 there were 1,174 units of unsold single-detached homes.
However, apartment inventories had been largely absorbed and trending downwards throughout 2018.
“This relatively active apartment market helped direct developers and builders’ attention to focus on apartment construction, as reflected through the upticks in apartment starts and construction levels in the first two quarters of 2019,” reads the report.
“However, unlike 2018, demand has not caught up with the heightened level of supply since the beginning of 2019, as inventory started to increase after reaching the trough at year-end 2018. This poses potential risks of pushing inventory higher if they are not absorbed in a timely manner.”
During the first two quarters of 2019, the sales-to-new-listings ratio hovered at 48%, indicative of a buyers’ market. Prices are forecast to stabilize between 2019 and 2020, with sales expected to regain momentum in the longer term.
As for the purpose-built rental market, vacancies are expected to trend lower in 2020 before increasing in 2021, when new rental market supply reaches completion.
CMHC 2020 housing forecast for Edmonton
- Total housing starts: 10,029 to 13,396 units
- Single-detached homes: 4,414 to 5,700 units
- Multi-unit homes: 5,615 to 7,696 units
- MLS sales: 17,448 to 20,007 units
- Average MLS price: $357,479 to $374,328