What analytics are predicting for Edmonton Oilers-Dallas Stars playoff series
The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars are gearing up for a Western Conference Final rematch, but who has the edge?
Connor McDavid and the Oilers won the first meeting between these two teams last season, taking care of the Stars in six games to advance to the 2024 Stanley Cup Final. This time around, it will be Dallas that is looking to seek revenge, albeit with a very similar team from last season.
The big difference for the Stars is the addition of Mikko Rantanen, who has been red-hot this postseason with nine goals and 19 points through the first two rounds. Jake Oettinger has also been spectacular in the Dallas net, sporting a sparkling .919 save percentage.
The Oilers have been coasting on impressive performances from McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, as well as some stellar contributions up and down the forward lineup. They’ve also locked things down defensively, having shut out the Vegas Golden Knights in consecutive games to advance to their second straight West Final.
It’s looking like as even as a series could be going into Game 1 on Wednesday night, but what are the analytics models saying? It might be surprising, but there does not seem to be a consensus among the two most relied upon models.
The Athletic likes the Oilers going all the way
When it comes to hockey analytics models, The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn has one of the most relied upon.
His model tracks playoff chances throughout the regular season and playoffs, is updated daily, and considers a variety of factors when plotting out who has the best chance of lifting the Stanley Cup at the end of the season.
The latest update to his model not only gives the Oilers the slight edge over the Stars in this upcoming season, but also the best chances to win the Stanley Cup, period. As it stands, Luszczyszyn’s model is giving Edmonton a 53 per cent chance at making the Stanley Cup Final and a 27 per cent chance of winning it all.
Stanley Cup chances going into the conference finals pic.twitter.com/XjgJULZDcK
— dom š (@domluszczyszyn) May 19, 2025
Despite these numbers, the Stars aren’t being ruled out by any means. Luszczyszyn’s model still gives Dallas a 47 per cent chance of defeating the Oilers and a 22 per cent chance of winning the Stanley Cup. Edmonton is tied with the Florida Panthers in this model, who also have a 27 per cent chance of winning it all, while the Carolina Hurricanes are sitting with a 24 per cent chance.
MoneyPuck sticking with Stars over Oilers
Just because Luszczyszyn’s model likes the Oilers’ chances doesn’t mean every analytics model is following suit.
Moneypuck’s model is not quite as favourable to McDavid’s squad and instead is siding with the Stars, and there is a bit of separation in its odds. While The Athletic’s model gives a razor-thin four per cent advantage to the Oilers, Moneypuck has given Dallas a much larger chance.
Currently, the Stars have a 55.4 per cent chance of beating Edmonton and advancing to the Stanley Cup Final, while the Oilers are given a 44.6 per cent chance. That is a difference of 10.8 per cent.
MoneyPuck.com
This is a lot different than what they have in the Eastern Conference Final, as the Panthers hold just a 0.2 per cent advantage over the Hurricanes, making that series a literal coin flip to predict analytically.
Unlike Luszczyszyn’s model, MoneyPuck seems to think the winner of the East Final is destined to win the cup, with Florida and Carolina’s chances totalling up to 56.7 per cent, while Dallas and Edmonton are at 43.3 per cent. The Oilers are rock-bottom in the final four with an 18.1 per cent chance to win the Stanley Cup.