Canada could see mixed bag of winter weather with growing El Niño
A growing El Niño could bring a mixed bag of weather to Canada this winter, forecasters predict.
According to The Weather Network, El Niño’s influence across the country could mean “milder conditions for some and an active storm track for others.”
“The warm waters of El Niño are here to stay through the winter, forecasters say, and the pattern could grow quite strong over the months ahead,” the network reported.
The warm waters of El Niño are here to stay through the winter, forecasters say, and the pattern could grow quite strong over the months ahead. https://t.co/FoayzgG4gK
— The Weather Network (@weathernetwork) September 17, 2023
The weather pattern, which means little boy in Spanish, describes the warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. In turn, it warms up the atmosphere above that part of the ocean, altering jet streams throughout the northern hemisphere.
Winds across the Pacific Ocean usually push warmer surface water west towards Australia and Indonesia, says The Weather Network.
However, this wind pattern sometimes breaks down or reverses direction so that the warm water is pushed back east towards South America.
“When these unusually toasty water temperatures stick around in the eastern Pacific for more than half a year, the anomaly is called an El Niño, and the warmup can have profound effects on weather patterns across North America,” reads the report.
This year’s El Niño is forecasted to strengthen through the heart of this upcoming winter, according to the US Climate Prediction Centre.
Based on past El Niños Canada has experienced, The Weather Network says this year’s forecast could go in different ways.
If the climate pattern shows up in typical fashion, the jet stream caused by the warm waters would jut toward the north, “allowing ridges of high pressure to develop over western Canada and the US.”
This would mean drier and above-seasonal temperatures for the West Coast of Canada.
Unfortunately, it’s a different story for Eastern Canada since it sits downwind of the jet stream.
“These patterns often see troughs dipping south across the eastern half of Canada, allowing for intrusions of frigid air and an active storm track to develop across the region,” says The Weather Network.
It adds that stronger El Niños sometimes push the cold and stormy conditions towards Atlantic Canada, allowing above-seasonal conditions around the Great Lakes.
The network says the big wild card this upcoming winter is the very warm temperatures throughout the Atlantic Ocean.
“Warmer waters in the western Atlantic Ocean can ‘enhance’ winter storms like nor’easters, providing them a boost in strength that could help produce heavier precipitation and stronger winds,” reads the report.
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