"Come and go" summer expected for Canada with mixed weather periods

Canada is in for a “come and go” summer, and you can expect hot, dry conditions with shots of cool and unsettled weather.

The Weather Network published its forecast for June, July, and August on Wednesday, alerting that La Niña has ended and predicting a moderate-to-strong El Niño event.

According to The National Weather Service, El Niño (Spanish for “the boy”) is part of a climate pattern where western winds along the equator slow down, pushing warm waters east and increasing the temperature of the ocean’s surface.

During Canada’s El Niña (Spanish for “the girl”), strong winds moved warm waters west, causing cold water from the deep ocean to rise, lowering the surface temperature.

These warming and cooling phases usually occur every few years, last several months and vary in intensity. In addition, periods of El Niña and El Niño can impact the average global temperature.

Will you need to prepare for a whole new level of summer chill this year, Canada?

Take a deep dive into our 2023 #SummerForecast! ⬇️

— The Weather Network (@weathernetwork) May 31, 2023

Chris Scott, chief meteorologist with The Weather Network, said that the global pattern is “in a state of upheaval.”

“We are seeing a rapid transition from an exceptionally persistent La Niña event to what appears to be a rather significant El Niño event. Therefore, our weather pattern this summer should be different from the past few summers with more changeable conditions,” he said.

Scott added that Canada could expect a cooler summer overall, particularly across its eastern half, but will see some “lingering effects” of La Niña-style hot weather in Western Canada.

This flipping weather pattern means you might want to keep your umbrella handy. Of course, things could get stormy, but that reduces the chance of drought-like conditions in the area, especially when mid-summer approaches.

Here’s how you can expect summer 2023 to go in your region.

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British Columbia

The province will have a warm summer, but not as relentlessly hot as recent summers have been, and with breaks of cool weather.

“While the risk of wildfires will continue to be a major concern, we are cautiously optimistic that in the heart of the summer, we will see some much-needed rain,” predicts The Weather Network.

The weather service also cautioned of drought in some parts of the province, saying, “The dominant storm track is expected to be primarily south of the international border.”

The Prairies

Summer across the Prairies, especially its western regions, is expected to be very warm. In the east, strong cold fronts will bring in occasional cooler weather periods.

“While drought and wildfire smoke will continue to be a concern, we are cautiously optimistic that we will see some significant rain (and thunderstorms) at times during the heart of the season,” said The Weather Network.

Ontario and Quebec

Heat will “lack commitment” this summer in Ontario and Quebec.

We’ll see frequent switches between longer hot weather and short cool weather periods. Due to this, there will not be as many days with 30-degree temperatures as we’ve seen in recent summers.

“Below-normal rainfall totals are expected across most of northern Ontario, while southern parts of the region should see near-normal or slightly above-normal rain totals,” said the weather agency.

Atlantic Canada

If you’re in the southern parts of Atlantic Canada, expect the weather to get slightly warmer than average temperatures. The Weather Network says this will happen primarily due to milder nighttime temperatures.

“Periods of dry weather are likely, but a stormy pattern at times should result in near-normal or above-normal rainfall totals,” it added.

A “less active” hurricane season is also expected, but there’s a risk of a significant impact from a couple of tropical systems.

Northern Canada

In Northern Canada, temperatures could get warmer than usual, especially in the western parts of the area. It will also be drier in the region west of Hudson Bay.

“The greatest concern for wildfires is across western parts of the region where temperatures will be much warmer,” The Weather Network forecasts.