Canadian employees expected to get lower salary increases in 2026
Employees hoping for a significant salary increase in Canada next year shouldn’t hold their breath.
Eckler, an actuarial consulting firm, released the results of its Compensation Planning Survey on Thursday, revealing the continuing trend of slowing salary growth across the Canadian market.
The survey was conducted from July to August 2025, with responses from over 500 Canadian organizations across diverse sectors. It provides insights into salary trends, pay practices and HR priorities.
According to the results, employers are planning average base salary increases of 3.3 per cent in Canada for 2026 (excluding salary freezes).
This is slightly below the actual average salary increase in Canada this year, which was 3.4 per cent.
Eckler said this dip signals a more cautious approach to budget planning amid slowing economic conditions and stabilizing inflation.
“Employers are signalling that while the economy has cooled, the war for talent is not quite over,” said Anand Parsan, principal at Eckler. “Only five per cent of employers are considering salary freezes, and while 29 per cent remain undecided, most are planning similar or lower salary increases compared to 2025.”
The report stated that while the Bank of Canada cut interest rates in an attempt to ease borrowing costs and stimulate growth, rising unemployment and ongoing economic uncertainty are keeping employers conservative.
“Trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. are also contributing to financial uncertainty, prompting employers to balance cost control with the need to reward and retain key talent,” added Parsan.
According to the survey results, this decline in salary increase marks the third consecutive year of slowing salary growth across sectors in Canada.
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Salary growth across provinces in Canada
The report found that the provinces with the highest projected wage increases for 2026 include Alberta and British Columbia (3.4 per cent), followed by Saskatchewan (3.3 per cent).
Ontario, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Yukon are expected to see a moderate increase of 3.2 per cent.
Quebec, Prince Edward Island, and the Northwest Territories are anticipating increases that are below the national weighted average (3.1 per cent). Newfoundland and Labrador and Nunavut are expected to receive the lowest raises of three per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.
Salary increases by industry
The sectors projected to receive the highest salary increases in Canada include professional services (3.7 per cent), agribusiness/agriculture and banking/insurance (3.6 per cent).
Government, IT/high tech, real estate, utilities, construction, retail, manufacturing, member associations, and transportation are expected to see moderate raises ranging from 3.2 per cent to 3.4 per cent.
The lowest wage increases are expected to go to charities, foundations, energy/oil and gas (three per cent), as well as education and healthcare (2.9 per cent).