Canada is hurtling towards a recession, warns Wells Fargo
Canada is headed towards a recession this year, and now is the time for Canadians to prepare for a financial downturn, according to a Wells Fargo report.
In its “International Economic Outlook: April 2025” report, the company highlights its economic forecast, stating that economies exposed to tariffs are expected to underperform.
“In that sense, we now believe Canada’s economy will enter technical recession this year,” states the report. It also predicts that the Bank of Canada will likely ease interest rates due to concerns about inflation.
However, tariffs aren’t the only factor that will have a direct impact on Canada’s economy — the indirect effects of sentiment and confidence are also expected to contribute to the recession.
And an already weak loonie is also likely to get even weaker.
Wells Fargo predicts that the Canadian dollar “will be a relative underperformer.” According to XE, as of April 29, the current conversion rate is US$1 to C$1.38, but by late 2026, the exchange rate could worsen, approaching a conversion rate of US$1 to C$1.48.
Are you prepared as Canada enters a recession?
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The economic forecast certainly looks grim, but what would a technical recession mean for Canadians?
Natasha Macmillan, director of Everyday Banking at Ratehub.ca, told Daily Hive that markets and consumers will likely be more cautious during periods of uncertainty.
“A technical recession, even a mild one, will affect Canadians differently depending on their industry, location, and personal financial situation,” she said. “We are entering a period where governments, companies, and individuals must be prepared for a wide range of outcomes.”
Macmillan shared advice for how Canadians can better protect themselves during a recession:
- Build up your savings — For individuals, Macmillan said the most important step is to focus on building or replenishing a savings buffer to ensure they are better protected from financial shocks, such as job losses, high borrowing costs, or unexpected expenses. “Financial resilience will be essential over the next year,” she said.
- Create a budget — Macmillan warns that tariffs and a recession would likely put households under pressure due to higher expenses and slow income growth. “Careful budgeting and prioritizing essentials will be critical for many families in the months ahead,” she said.
- Take a look at your investments — Considering the economic uncertainty, Macmillan suggests that Canadians reevaluate their investment strategy. “Another thing you can do is consider shifting more savings into low-risk investments like Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs),” she suggested. “While you get modest returns with GICs, they’re the best option for stress-free investing.”
- Shop for the best mortgage rates — Is your mortgage up for renewal? Macmillan said it’s time to lock in a rate hold sooner rather than later. “This will secure today’s rates, should rates go up, and if rates go down, you can still access those,” she stated.
As Canada faces a potential recession, Canadians must focus on strengthening their financial foundations.
“Focusing on building savings, securing fixed borrowing rates where possible, and cutting back on non-essential spending can make a real difference in staying resilient through potential challenges,” she said.