Canadians should prepare themselves for a hotter-than-usual summer, say officials, who warn about the potential consequences of the heat.
On Tuesday, June 20, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) provided an update to media on the Summer Seasonal Climate Outlook 2023.
ECCC Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Armel Castellan and Research Scientist Nathan Gillett shared information about forecasted temperature models in Canada and climate change’s impact.
The month ahead
Forecast probability for the month ahead (from June 16 to July 15) shows that across Canada, “above normal” temperatures are expected – especially in Eastern Canada.
Thinking back to 2022, Canada had a very dry fall. Then, spring was cool in March and April but extremely warm in May.
Anomalous precipitation in Canada showing dry conditions/ECCC
These above-normal temperatures contributed to an early start to fire season in regions like northern BC and the Prairies. Also, lower-than-average precipitation, as seen in the chart above, contributed to our current conditions.
Summer 2023 temperature forecast
Above-normal temperatures will dominate Canada as the temperature pattern extends through summer until September 2023.
This model is backed up by similar forecasts predicted by international models from the Americans, Europeans, and other global meteorological agencies.
As these anomalously hot conditions will continue across the country this summer, the potential consequences include the following:
- wildfires
- evacuations
- poor air quality from smoke
- heat waves that create health risks and contribute to mortality in vulnerable populations
- continued drought conditions
Impact of climate change
ECCC says that climate change has increased the probability of extreme weather events. These weather events are causing growing economic losses, social disruption, environmental damage, and loss of life.
Event attribution studies show that what we’ve seen is “almost impossible” without the effects of human-induced climate change, said ECCC.
Scientists are able to link extreme events with climate change by calculating probabilities and comparing probabilities with and without human influence.
The effects of climate change make once-rare events more common, especially if the planet continues to warm.
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