How high or low the Calgary Flames' draft lottery odds can go
The Calgary Flames have two first-round picks in the 2026 draft, though it’s the first of those two picks everyone is keeping an eye on.
Never in franchise history have the Flames had a top-three pick, though there is a strong chance that changes later this year.
It’s been a long season for the Flames, who currently own a 26-34-7 record through 67 games. Wins have been even more difficult to come by following some recent transactions, which, believe it or not, have the fan base extremely excited.
GM Craig Conroy moved out two key veterans from his roster in MacKenzie Weegar and Nazem Kadri, trades that came less than two months after Rasmus Andersson was shipped out of town. The rebuild is now full-steam ahead, giving the organization a strong shot at a top-three pick.
The Flames, who are 2-7-1 over their last 10 games, currently sit 31st in NHL standings. That said, they remain just two points shy of the 30th-placed Chicago Blackhawks.
NHL.com
As per Tankathon, the Flames currently have a 57.9 per cent chance of picking in the top three if the regular season ended today. They also have a 42.1 per cent chance of landing the fourth-overall selection.
Tankathon
Given that the 11-point gap between the Flames and Canucks is likely to be too big, the Canucks feel destined to end the season in 32nd place. As the odds illustrate, however, that doesn’t guarantee them a first-overall selection.
These are extremely exciting times for Flames fans, many of whom have been wanting to see this team bottom out in recent years. The organization’s highest draft pick to date came back in 2014 when Sam Bennett was selected fourth overall.
Based on the standings, it’s difficult to envision the Flames finishing the season any higher than 27th place. Finishing 27th would drop their chances of landing a top-three pick to just 15.4 per cent, while having an 84.5 per cent chance of picking from the 6-8 range.
That, in essence, is why there is a large, growing chunk of the fan base hoping to see the losses pile up in the 15 games that remain.
The expected top-three selections in forwards Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg, along with defenceman Keaton Verhoeff, are all being viewed as franchise-changing talents. Landing any of the three would be a major boost to an organization that already has a strong prospect pool.
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