How coronavirus in Canada compares to other countries as of April 16
It has been roughly one month since Canada hit its 600th case of coronavirus, and as of April 16 it has seen 29,925 confirmed cases.
Other countries had already been in the tens of thousands of cases one month ago, so we decided to take a look at their curves for an idea of where Canada might be heading.
Since then, we’ve been keeping an eye on Canada’s curve, and while ours isn’t looking nearly as tall as some of the hardest-hit countries like China, Italy, the US, and Spain, we’re still looking at a steep trajectory.
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These numbers, and the ones to follow, are supplied by Worldometer, a site reportedly run by an international team of developers, researchers, and volunteers that uses an algorithm to pull from a list of reputable sources including government agencies, the United Nations, and the World Health Organization, to create a live counter of known coronavirus cases around the world.
The numbers presented by Worldometer are estimates based on the latest information, and that the number of known cases in any given country are merely a representation of tested cases and therefore do not accurately represent the unknowable number of actual cases of coronavirus — though it’s the best we have to go off of right now.
While no two countries can ever be directly compared — population density, cultural customs, and speed of government responses are all factors that impact how quickly a virus can spread — taking a look at other countries could give us a bit of an idea of what is ahead for Canada, seeing as we were hit by the virus weeks later.
In the month since hitting their own 600-mark — the point at which we began comparing countries to Canada — China saw total known cases rise to 76,936, Italy to 86,498, Iran to 38,309, Spain to 148,220, the US to 469,124, and Germany to 103,375 — meaning that Canada’s virus spread is, as far as detected cases go, quite a bit slower than some of these hardest hit countries.
Total Coronavirus cases in Canada (worldometer)
We’re definitely looking closer to Iran than we are to China or the US, so let’s take a look at where that country was at a week after hitting the 30,000 mark we’re about to pass.
Iran saw an increase to 50,468 known cases by the following week, jumping from 29,408 on March 26 to surpassing 50,000 by April 2.
Iran (worldometer)
For some context, the US currently has the world’s largest number of known cases at 667,572 as of April 16.
One week after hitting 33,745 known cases on March 22, America had shot up to a count of 144,321 by March 29.
Our four-week curve since hitting 600 has already proven itself to be not nearly as steep as our neighbours to the south. Using the numbers available to us, we have reason to suspect that we will not be hit as hard as America.
Our population is about 1/10th the size of the US, however. Factoring that into the equation finds America with an average of 2,017 cases per one million people, while Canada sits at 792 cases per one million people.
The worldwide average is at 275 known cases per one million people, so while we’re not doing nearly as bad as the US, we’re definitely still in the thick of it all.
wordlometer
The future is going to look quite bleak if we’re only taking into account statistics from the most-affected countries, though.
As previously mentioned in last month’s international update, there are other countries that have managed to keep infection rates to a minimum in the weeks following that 600th known case.
South Korea jumped from 602 cases to 7,313 cases in the two weeks between February 23 and March 8 but has since seen a significant decrease in daily cases, with only 27 new cases detected on April 15 for a total of just 10,613.
South Korea (worldometer)
Poland, which is among the closest to Canada’s population out of any other country in the world, hit 600 cases just a few days before we did. In the time since, they’ve seen an increase to just 7,582 known cases as of April 15.
While it appears that Canada is angling a little closer to Iran’s rate of infection than South Korea’s or Poland’s, we do, fortunately, still have time to act to keep Canada from the exponential spike seen in those even harder-hit countries.
As for when Canada might begin to see an end to this pandemic, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that these physical distancing measures could be in place for up to a year or a year and a half, until a vaccine is developed.
“We’re in the earlier state of the outbreak,” said Trudeau. “We’re at a fork in the road in terms of outcomes.”
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While there is nothing “lucky” about the current state of the world, Canada is fortunate to have been hit by the virus weeks later than some other countries — giving us time to see the severity of the situation and act accordingly.
We may not yet be on full lockdown like some countries, but the next few days will be among the most critical for curbing the spread of coronavirus throughout the country. The only better time to act would have been during the days we’ve already lost.
So stay home, self-isolate, physical distance, wash your hands, and know that the sacrifices you make today do have an impact on whether or not Canada will see deaths in the thousands, or tens of thousands, in the weeks to come.
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