Staggering study predicts how costly a Calgary house could be in 2032

A new study from Concordia University’s John Molson School of Business and Equiton used an AI-driven model to project how much a house will cost in Calgary come 2032.

It forecasted home prices across four major cities in Canada looking at Montreal, Toronto, Vancouver, and Calgary.

According to the study, Calgary’s housing market could be on track for a breather. It projects a dip in prices as changes in the federal immigration policy collide with the local housing supply.

In cities like Montréal, housing prices continue to rise, regardless of the number of new houses that come onto the market. Calgary, however, is more sensitive to population changes than to new construction.

Meaning, if population growth slows, price growth could decelerate, even if the housing supply remains limited.

Concordia University

The median home price in Calgary saw a peak in 2024 at around $740,000, but the study suggests it could fall by over $100,000 in the next two years. 

“With increased supply, the dip is even more pronounced, reaching near $600,000 under the most aggressive completion scenario.”

While a dip is expected, housing prices are projected to rise again.

By 2032, the AI estimates that prices will stabilize somewhere around the $650,000 to $730,000 mark. Suggesting Calgary’s market may show better long-term stability compared to Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver.

Compared to the 2024 median house price of the markets, Calgary was the only city projected to see a dip, besides Montreal, which saw a slight one in 2025.

In the highest population growth scenario, Toronto could see a rise of $400,000, Vancouver by over $300,000, and Montreal by $75,000, by 2032.

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The study notes that Calgary stands out as a market because changes in immigration have the ability to slow down price increases, and building more homes can influence future affordability. 

“This finding provides a unique window for planners and developers to align future projects with the city’s evolving demographic profile.” 

If you’re wondering how Calgary’s affordability fits on the global scale, we dove into a study that ranked the city as ‘seriously unaffordable‘.

You can view the full study online.